Sport Picks
Ursus Warszawa vs Sokol Ostroda
Poland
III Liga - Group I 2022/2023 
Match Events
49'
49'
Wisniewski B.
64'
64'
Furman M.
74'
74'
Swiety L.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Sokol Ostroda in this III Liga - Group I 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sokol Ostroda.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
20%
44%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sokol Ostroda
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Sokol Ostroda lately — more wins on the board than Ursus Warszawa.
- Ursus Warszawa are the model's pick here, at 42%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Ursus Warszawa Clean Sheet 18%
Sokol Ostroda Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ursus Warszawa | Sokol Ostroda |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 5 | 8 |
| Draws | 6 | 6 |
| Losses | 19 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.2 | 1.37 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 17, 2023 III Liga - Group I
Ursus Warszawa vs Sokol Ostroda
1:2
Nov 19, 2022 III Liga - Group I
Sokol Ostroda vs Ursus Warszawa
4:3
Jun 6, 2020 III Liga - Group I
Sokol Ostroda vs Ursus Warszawa
0:0
Nov 9, 2019 III Liga - Group I
Ursus Warszawa vs Sokol Ostroda
2:2
Apr 27, 2019 III Liga - Group I
Ursus Warszawa vs Sokol Ostroda
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ursus Warszawa Compare
Top Goalscorer Wisniewski B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Sokol Ostroda Compare
Top Goalscorer Furman M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ursus Warszawa 41 / 100
Sokol Ostroda 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ursus Warszawa Sokol Ostroda
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Sokol Ostroda let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.
Attacking prowess: Ursus Warszawa scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Ursus Warszawa stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Ursus Warszawa VS Sokol Ostroda
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Ursus Warszawa
(Home) 15 Feb
Biala Podlaska
1 : 1 Ursus Warszawa
08 Feb
Ursus Warszawa
4 : 1 Mszczonowianka Mszczonow
01 Feb
Ursus Warszawa
2 : 6 Victoria Sulejowek
20 Jul
LKS Lomza
0 : 0 Ursus Warszawa
17 Feb
Warta Sieradz
2 : 0 Ursus Warszawa
Page 1 of 6
08 Feb
Ursus Warszawa
4 : 1 Mszczonowianka Mszczonow
01 Feb
Ursus Warszawa
2 : 6 Victoria Sulejowek
17 Jun
Ursus Warszawa
1 : 2 Sokol Ostroda
03 Jun
Ursus Warszawa
1 : 2 Pelikan
24 May
Ursus Warszawa
2 : 0 Jagiellonia II
Page 1 of 3
Sokol Ostroda
(Away) 02 Sept
Sokol Ostroda
1 : 2 Kleczew
18 Jul
MKS Mlawa
4 : 0 Sokol Ostroda
17 Jun
Ursus Warszawa
1 : 2 Sokol Ostroda
10 Jun
Sokol Ostroda
2 : 1 Blonianka Blonie
07 Jun
Sokol Ostroda
1 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
MKS Mlawa
4 : 0 Sokol Ostroda
17 Jun
Ursus Warszawa
1 : 2 Sokol Ostroda
28 May
Pelikan
1 : 1 Sokol Ostroda
21 May
Jagiellonia II
3 : 1 Sokol Ostroda
06 May
Unia Skierniewice
2 : 0 Sokol Ostroda
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LKS Lodz II | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 76:41 | 68 |
| 2 | Legionowo | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 71:43 | 64 |
| 3 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 62:39 | 64 |
| 4 | Swit Mazowiecki | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 66:45 | 61 |
| 5 | Legia II | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 66:48 | 55 |
| 6 | Tomaszow Mazowiecki | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 51:43 | 55 |
| 7 | Unia Skierniewice | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 41:38 | 53 |
| 8 | MKS Mlawa | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 83:71 | 52 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia II | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 65:54 | 49 |
| 10 | Pilica Bialobrzegi | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 53:55 | 45 |
| 11 | Pelikan | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 56:52 | 45 |
| 12 | Sokol Ostroda | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 49:71 | 36 |
| 13 | Olimpia Zambrow | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 40:63 | 36 |
| 14 | Bron Radom | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 60:76 | 35 |
| 15 | Warta Sieradz | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 39:53 | 34 |
| 16 | Concordia Elblag | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 38:61 | 33 |
| 17 | Blonianka Blonie | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 35:68 | 30 |
| 18 | Ursus Warszawa | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 42:72 | 25 |
Promotion - Division 2 2023/2024 (Main)
