Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Uruguay W vs Chile W

South America South America

CONMEBOL Nations League Women Estadio Centenario, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Gonzalez P.
Assist: Bermudez K.
9' Event
Valencia M.
Assist: Keefe S.
22'
Lacoste S.

AI Match Summary

The CONMEBOL Nations League Women game between Uruguay W and Chile W finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chile W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Uruguay W
15%
Draws
51%
Chile W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chile W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Chile W come out ahead of Uruguay W on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Uruguay W Clean Sheet 18%
Chile W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uruguay W Chile W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 15
Draws 8 3
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.17 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 CONMEBOL Nations League Women
Uruguay W vs Chile W
1:3
Jul 25, 2025 Copa América Women
Chile W vs Uruguay W
0:3
Dec 3, 2024 Friendly International Women
Chile W vs Uruguay W
0:1
Nov 30, 2024 Friendly International Women
Chile W vs Uruguay W
1:0
Sep 17, 2021 Friendly International Women
Chile W vs Uruguay W
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uruguay W Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Chile W Compare

Top Goalscorer Valencia M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Olivares L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uruguay W 36 / 100
Chile W 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uruguay W Chile W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chile W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uruguay W's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Chile W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Chile W's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Uruguay W VS Chile W
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Uruguay W

(Home)
09 Jun
Uruguay W
1 : 1
Venezuela W
05 Jun
Colombia W
1 : 0
Uruguay W
18 Apr
Uruguay W
1 : 3
Chile W
14 Apr
Bolivia W
1 : 2
Uruguay W
10 Apr
Peru W
2 : 1
Uruguay W
Page 1 of 6

Chile W

(Away)
05 Jun
Chile W
1 : 2
Ecuador W
18 Apr
Uruguay W
1 : 3
Chile W
15 Apr
Colombia W
2 : 0
Chile W
11 Apr
Chile W
0 : 1
Argentina W
07 Mar
Paraguay W
0 : 1
Chile W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Colombia W 8 6 2 0 16:7 20
2 Argentina W 8 5 3 0 18:5 18
3 Venezuela W 8 3 3 2 19:6 12
4 Ecuador W 8 3 2 3 8:6 11
5 Peru W 8 3 2 3 12:15 11
6 Paraguay W 8 3 1 4 17:11 10
7 Chile W 8 3 1 4 11:9 10
8 Uruguay W 8 1 3 4 7:11 6
9 Bolivia W 8 0 1 7 2:40 1
Promotion - World Cup Women (Main)
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion)