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US Goree vs AJEL

Senegal Senegal

Ligue 1 2025/2026
US Goree Logo

US Goree

2 - 1
FT
AJEL Logo

AJEL

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

US Goree in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored US Goree.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
US Goree
35%
Draws
41%
AJEL
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: AJEL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • AJEL have won more games recently than US Goree.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.2%
US Goree Clean Sheet 20%
AJEL Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric US Goree AJEL
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 15
Draws 15 9
Losses 4 6
Goals Scored 0.97 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.47 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Ligue 1
US Goree vs AJEL
2:1
Jan 31, 2026 Ligue 1
AJEL vs US Goree
1:0
Jun 26, 2025 Ligue 1
US Goree vs AJEL
2:1
Feb 9, 2025 Ligue 1
AJEL vs US Goree
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

US Goree 32 / 100
AJEL 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
US Goree AJEL

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: US Goree remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: US Goree scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

AJEL has conceded goals in 43% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

US Goree VS AJEL
0.75 Goals Scored 0.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 25%
25% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

US Goree

(Home)
04 Jun
US Goree
0 : 0
Mbour
22 May
Wally Daan
1 : 1
US Goree
17 May
US Goree
2 : 1
AJEL
13 May
Ouakam
2 : 0
US Goree
10 May
US Goree
1 : 1
ASC HLM
Page 1 of 6

AJEL

(Away)
04 Jun
Generation Foot
0 : 1
AJEL
22 May
AJEL
2 : 1
Linguere
17 May
US Goree
2 : 1
AJEL
13 May
AJEL
1 : 0
Guediawaye
10 May
Teungueth
0 : 0
AJEL
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Teungueth 30 13 15 2 21:6 54
2 AJEL 30 15 9 6 27:19 54
3 Generation Foot 30 13 9 8 37:22 48
4 US Goree 30 11 15 4 29:14 48
5 Wally Daan 30 10 14 6 29:24 44
6 Ouakam 30 8 18 4 23:16 42
7 ASC Jaraaf 30 9 14 7 21:16 41
8 Casa 30 7 19 4 29:20 40
9 Pikine 30 7 13 10 20:19 34
10 Mbour 30 5 18 7 18:21 33
11 ASC HLM 30 5 18 7 18:24 33
12 Dakar Sacre-Coeur 30 5 16 9 24:37 31
13 Guediawaye 30 7 8 15 29:34 28
14 Linguere 30 3 16 11 22:36 25
15 Sonacos 30 4 13 13 18:39 25
16 AS Camberene 30 3 15 12 16:34 24
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)