Sport Picks
US Tolentino vs Porto Sant'Elpidio
Italy
Serie D - Group F 2020/2021 
Match Events
4'
4'
Minella S.
35'
35'
Minella S.
(Penalty)
37'
37'
Conti F.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group F 2020/2021 game between US Tolentino and Porto Sant'Elpidio finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward US Tolentino.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
48%
15%
37%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: US Tolentino
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Porto Sant'Elpidio haven't matched US Tolentino's recent run of results.
- Porto Sant'Elpidio are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- Regular Serie D - Group F 2020/2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors US Tolentino here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
US Tolentino Clean Sheet 20%
Porto Sant'Elpidio Clean Sheet 18%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | US Tolentino | Porto Sant'Elpidio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 35 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 4 |
| Draws | 9 | 3 |
| Losses | 17 | 23 |
| Goals Scored | 0.86 | 0.67 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 1.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.79 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 21, 2021 Serie D - Group F
US Tolentino vs Porto Sant'Elpidio
4:0
Sep 27, 2020 Serie D - Group F
Porto Sant'Elpidio vs US Tolentino
0:2
Mar 8, 2020 Serie D - Group F
Porto Sant'Elpidio vs US Tolentino
0:0
Nov 3, 2019 Serie D - Group F
US Tolentino vs Porto Sant'Elpidio
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
US Tolentino Compare
Top Goalscorer Minella S.
2 Goals Assists Leader Conti F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.4
Porto Sant'Elpidio Compare
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
US Tolentino 20 / 100
Porto Sant'Elpidio 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
US Tolentino Porto Sant'Elpidio
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Porto Sant'Elpidio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Porto Sant'Elpidio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.25 goals.
US Tolentino went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
US Tolentino scored in 54% of their last 35 games.
Scoring Trends
US Tolentino VS -
0.38 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
US Tolentino
(Home) 29 Jul
Ascoli
5 : 0 US Tolentino
07 May
US Tolentino
1 : 0 Roma City
30 Apr
Porto D'Ascoli
1 : 2 US Tolentino
23 Apr
US Tolentino
2 : 1 Trastevere Calcio
16 Apr
Avezzano
3 : 0 US Tolentino
Page 1 of 7
07 May
US Tolentino
1 : 0 Roma City
23 Apr
US Tolentino
2 : 1 Trastevere Calcio
02 Apr
US Tolentino
0 : 1 Nuova Florida
12 Mar
US Tolentino
0 : 1 Calcio Chieti
26 Feb
US Tolentino
1 : 0 Montegiorgio
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Porto Sant'Elpidio
(Away) 19 Jun
Porto Sant'Elpidio
2 : 0 Notaresco Calcio
16 Jun
Vastese
1 : 0 Porto Sant'Elpidio
13 Jun
Porto Sant'Elpidio
3 : 2 Castelnuovo Vomano
06 Jun
Campobasso
1 : 1 Porto Sant'Elpidio
30 May
Agnonese
1 : 0 Porto Sant'Elpidio
Page 1 of 6
16 Jun
Vastese
1 : 0 Porto Sant'Elpidio
06 Jun
Campobasso
1 : 1 Porto Sant'Elpidio
30 May
Agnonese
1 : 0 Porto Sant'Elpidio
19 May
Giulianova
2 : 0 Porto Sant'Elpidio
16 May
Montegiorgio
1 : 0 Porto Sant'Elpidio
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Campobasso | 34 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 63:29 | 72 |
| 2 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 59:34 | 64 |
| 3 | Pineto | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 45:33 | 56 |
| 4 | Cynthialbalonga | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 51:35 | 56 |
| 5 | Matese | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 46:38 | 56 |
| 6 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 46:33 | 55 |
| 7 | Recanatese | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 62:45 | 50 |
| 8 | Castelnuovo Vomano | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 53:53 | 50 |
| 9 | Vastese | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:37 | 48 |
| 10 | Montegiorgio | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 42:42 | 46 |
| 11 | FC Rieti | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 38:42 | 44 |
| 12 | Aprilia | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 43:49 | 44 |
| 13 | Roma City | 34 | 8 | 16 | 10 | 40:41 | 40 |
| 14 | US Tolentino | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 52:53 | 40 |
| 15 | Vastogirardi | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46:51 | 40 |
| 16 | Giulianova | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 33:50 | 31 |
| 17 | Porto Sant'Elpidio | 34 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 22:63 | 17 |
| 18 | Agnonese | 34 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 25:83 | 15 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2020/2021 (Play Offs)
