Sport Picks

Stadium Background

USA vs Belgium

World World

Friendly International Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
McKennie W.
39' Event
McKennie W.
Assist: Robinson A.
45' Event
Debast Z.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International game between USA and Belgium finished 2-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Belgium.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
USA
15%
Draws
49%
Belgium
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Belgium

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and USA come out ahead of Belgium on wins alone.
  • 49% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Belgium here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
USA Clean Sheet 10%
Belgium Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA Belgium
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 16 14
Draws 1 7
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.96 2.43
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 7, 2026 World Championship
USA vs Belgium
1:4
Mar 28, 2026 Friendly International
USA vs Belgium
2:5
Jul 1, 2014 World Championship
Belgium vs USA
2:1
May 30, 2013 Friendly International
USA vs Belgium
2:4
Sep 6, 2011 Friendly International
Belgium vs USA
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA Compare

Top Goalscorer McKennie W.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Agyemang P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Belgium Compare

Top Goalscorer Lukebakio D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Debast Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA 30 / 100
Belgium 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA Belgium

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Belgium Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USA scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

These sides typically produce 4.40 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Belgium conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: USA stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

USA VS Belgium
2.38 Goals Scored 2.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

USA

(Home)
26 Sept
USA
4 : 1
Peru
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
02 Jul
USA
2 : 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
26 Jun
Turkey
3 : 2
USA
19 Jun
USA
2 : 0
Australia
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Belgium

(Away)
25 Sept
Italy
0 : 2
Belgium
10 Jul
Spain
2 : 1
Belgium
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
01 Jul
Belgium
3 : 2
Senegal
27 Jun
New Zealand
1 : 5
Belgium
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