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Stadium Background

USA vs Ecuador

World World

Friendly International 2025 Q2 Stadium, Austin, TX
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Richards C.
24' Event
Valencia E.
Assist: Yeboah J.
40'
Robinson M.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
USA
15%
Draws
37%
Ecuador
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: USA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to USA lately — more wins on the board than Ecuador.
  • Win probability leans USA's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
USA Clean Sheet 15%
Ecuador Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA Ecuador
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 18 12
Draws 1 13
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.87 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.45 0.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 11, 2025 Friendly International
USA vs Ecuador
1:1
Mar 22, 2019 Friendly International
USA vs Ecuador
1:0
Jun 17, 2016 Copa América
USA vs Ecuador
2:1
May 26, 2016 Friendly International
USA vs Ecuador
1:0
Oct 10, 2014 Friendly International
USA vs Ecuador
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA Compare

Top Goalscorer Balogun F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Ecuador Compare

Top Goalscorer Valencia E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA 41 / 100
Ecuador 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA Ecuador

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USA scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: USA stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Ecuador has conceded goals in 52% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

USA VS Ecuador
2.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

USA

(Home)
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
02 Jul
USA
2 : 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
26 Jun
Turkey
3 : 2
USA
19 Jun
USA
2 : 0
Australia
13 Jun
USA
4 : 1
Paraguay
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Ecuador

(Away)
01 Jul
Mexico
2 : 0
Ecuador
25 Jun
Ecuador
2 : 1
Germany
21 Jun
Ecuador
0 : 0
Curacao
14 Jun
Ivory Coast
1 : 0
Ecuador
07 Jun
Ecuador
3 : 0
Guatemala
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