Sport Picks

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USA vs Paraguay

World World

Friendly International 2025 Subaru Park, Chester, PA
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Reyna G.
Assist: Arfsten M.
10' Event
Arce A.
Assist: Almiron M.
26'
Robinson M.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2025 game between USA and Paraguay finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward USA.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
USA
15%
Draws
37%
Paraguay
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: USA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • USA carry the better recent record into this one.
  • USA are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors USA here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
USA Clean Sheet 68%
Paraguay Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA Paraguay
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 17 12
Draws 1 7
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.87 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 13, 2026 World Championship
USA vs Paraguay
4:1
Nov 15, 2025 Friendly International
USA vs Paraguay
2:1
Mar 27, 2018 Friendly International
USA vs Paraguay
1:0
Jun 11, 2016 Copa América
USA vs Paraguay
1:0
Mar 30, 2011 Friendly International
USA vs Paraguay
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA Compare

Top Goalscorer Reyna G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Balogun F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Paraguay Compare

Top Goalscorer Arce A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA 77 / 100
Paraguay 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA Paraguay

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: USA scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: USA stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Paraguay has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

USA VS Paraguay
2.38 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

USA

(Home)
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
02 Jul
USA
2 : 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
26 Jun
Turkey
3 : 2
USA
19 Jun
USA
2 : 0
Australia
13 Jun
USA
4 : 1
Paraguay
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Paraguay

(Away)
04 Jul
Paraguay
0 : 1
France
29 Jun
Germany
1 : 2
Paraguay
26 Jun
Paraguay
0 : 0
Australia
20 Jun
Turkey
0 : 1
Paraguay
13 Jun
USA
4 : 1
Paraguay
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