Sport Picks

Stadium Background

USA W vs Japan W

World World

Friendly International Women Dick's Sporting Goods Park, Commerce City, CO
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Sub
Kitagawa H. In: Moriya M.
Out: Kitagawa H.
46'
Sub
Davidson T. In: Wesley K.
Out: Davidson T.
46'
Sub
Ueki R. In: Tanaka M.
Out: Ueki R.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International Women game between USA W and Japan W finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward USA W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
USA W
15%
Draws
53%
Japan W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • USA W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Japan W taking it.
  • Regular Friendly International Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
USA W Clean Sheet 12%
Japan W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA W Japan W
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 23 19
Draws 1 4
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 2.38 2.9
Goals Conceded 0.45 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.72
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Friendly International Women
USA W vs Japan W
3:0
Apr 15, 2026 Friendly International Women
USA W vs Japan W
0:1
Apr 11, 2026 Friendly International Women
USA W vs Japan W
2:1
Feb 27, 2025 SheBelieves Cup Women
USA W vs Japan W
1:2
Aug 3, 2024 Olympic Games Women
USA W vs Japan W
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA W Compare

Top Goalscorer Girma N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lavelle R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Japan W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.56
Avg xA / game 0.96

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA W 10 / 100
Japan W 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA W Japan W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: USA W scored in 93% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Recent resilience: USA W stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Japan W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 47% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

USA W VS Japan W
1.14 Goals Scored 2.88
0.57 Goals Conceded 0.75
43% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

USA W

(Home)
10 Jun
Brazil W
0 : 1
USA W
06 Jun
Brazil W
2 : 1
USA W
18 Apr
USA W
3 : 0
Japan W
15 Apr
USA W
0 : 1
Japan W
11 Apr
USA W
2 : 1
Japan W
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Japan W

(Away)
02 Oct
North Korea W
2 : 3
Japan W
29 Sept
Japan W
2 : 0
South Korea W
25 Sept
Japan W
4 : 0
Philippines W
21 Sept
Japan W
4 : 0
Chinese Taipei W
17 Sept
Vietnam W
0 : 8
Japan W
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