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USD Casatese vs Pistoiese - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Luperini G.
40' Event
Motti M.
64' Event
Corazza S.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D game between USD Casatese and Pistoiese finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pistoiese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
USD Casatese
15%
Draws
54%
Pistoiese
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pistoiese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • USD Casatese haven't matched Pistoiese's recent run of results.
  • Pistoiese are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
USD Casatese Clean Sheet 13%
Pistoiese Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USD Casatese Pistoiese
Matches Played 31 36
Wins 15 25
Draws 8 6
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.35 1.83
Goals Conceded 0.87 0.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Serie D - Group D
USD Casatese vs Pistoiese
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USD Casatese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Pistoiese Compare

Top Goalscorer Luperini G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Motti M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USD Casatese 10 / 100
Pistoiese 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USD Casatese Pistoiese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pistoiese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USD Casatese found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

USD Casatese went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Pistoiese has conceded goals in 42% of their last 36 outings.

Scoring Trends

USD Casatese VS Pistoiese
1.63 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

USD Casatese

(Home)
04 Oct
USD Casatese
0 : 3
Pistoiese
27 Sept
USD Casatese
4 : 2
Varesina
20 Sept
Correggese
1 : 3
USD Casatese
16 Sept
USD Casatese
1 : 2
Sant'Angelo
12 Sept
Solbiatese
0 : 0
USD Casatese
Page 1 of 7

Pistoiese

(Away)
07 Oct
Sestri Levante
1 : 0
Pistoiese
04 Oct
USD Casatese
0 : 3
Pistoiese
27 Sept
Pistoiese
3 : 0
Sant'Angelo
20 Sept
Varesina
0 : 1
Pistoiese
16 Sept
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Arconatese
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 6 6 0 0 17:1 18
2 Pro Sesto 6 4 1 1 17:5 13
3 Pro Patria 6 4 1 1 10:4 13
4 Lentigione 6 4 1 1 9:6 13
5 Castellanzese 6 4 0 2 13:5 12
6 Cittadella Vis Modena 6 3 1 2 7:4 10
7 USD Casatese 6 3 1 2 10:9 10
8 Correggese 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
9 Sant'Angelo 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
10 Pavia 6 1 4 1 5:3 7
11 Varese FC 6 1 3 2 7:7 6
12 Varesina 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
13 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 2:6 5
14 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
15 Crema 6 1 1 4 4:14 4
16 Arconatese 6 0 3 3 4:13 3
17 Oltrepo 6 1 0 5 4:14 3
18 US Pontedera 5 0 0 5 3:15 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)