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USD Ragusa vs Nuova Gioiese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Zamani H.
51' Event
Tuccio V.
90' Event
Tuccio V.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 game between USD Ragusa and Nuova Gioiese finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward USD Ragusa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
USD Ragusa
35%
Draws
37%
Nuova Gioiese
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nuova Gioiese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and USD Ragusa come out ahead of Nuova Gioiese on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans USD Ragusa's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
USD Ragusa Clean Sheet 20%
Nuova Gioiese Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USD Ragusa Nuova Gioiese
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 9 2
Draws 12 3
Losses 10 24
Goals Scored 1 0.52
Goals Conceded 1.03 2.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2024 Serie D - Group I
USD Ragusa vs Nuova Gioiese
2:1
Dec 10, 2023 Serie D - Group I
Nuova Gioiese vs USD Ragusa
1:4
Jan 19, 2014 Serie D - Group I
Nuova Gioiese vs USD Ragusa
3:0
Sep 15, 2013 Serie D - Group I
USD Ragusa vs Nuova Gioiese
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USD Ragusa Compare

Top Goalscorer Tuccio V.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Nuova Gioiese Compare

Top Goalscorer Zamani H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USD Ragusa 40 / 100
Nuova Gioiese 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USD Ragusa Nuova Gioiese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USD Ragusa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nuova Gioiese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: USD Ragusa stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Nuova Gioiese's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

USD Ragusa VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

USD Ragusa

(Home)
16 Sept
USD Ragusa
1 : 1
Lamezia
13 Sept
Milazzo
3 : 1
USD Ragusa
06 Sept
USD Ragusa
2 : 2
ASD Modica Calcio
10 May
USD Ragusa
0 : 0
ACR Messina
03 May
USD Ragusa
1 : 2
Athletic Palermo
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Nuova Gioiese

(Away)
05 May
Castrovillari
0 : 2
Nuova Gioiese
28 Apr
Nuova Gioiese
1 : 2
Trapani
21 Apr
USD Ragusa
2 : 1
Nuova Gioiese
14 Apr
Nuova Gioiese
2 : 2
S. Agata
28 Mar
Licata
4 : 0
Nuova Gioiese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trapani 34 30 4 0 95:15 94
2 Siracusa 34 25 6 3 79:26 81
3 Vibonese 34 22 6 6 67:29 72
4 Reggina 34 19 8 7 54:25 65
5 AS Acireale 34 15 9 10 39:41 54
6 S. Agata 34 15 7 12 46:35 52
7 Real Casalnuovo 34 15 6 13 52:49 51
8 USD Ragusa 34 14 8 12 41:38 50
9 Canicatti 34 14 6 14 55:51 48
10 Igea Virtus 34 13 6 15 38:40 45
11 Licata 34 12 7 15 43:54 43
12 Akragas 34 12 6 16 42:53 42
13 Sancataldese 34 9 10 15 32:43 37
14 Portici 1906 34 8 8 18 32:55 32
15 San Luca 34 6 12 16 37:55 29
16 Locri 1909 34 7 7 20 34:68 28
17 Castrovillari 34 2 12 20 29:76 17
18 Nuova Gioiese 34 3 2 29 18:80 11
19 Lamezia Terme 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Out)