Sport Picks
Ustrem Donchevo vs Botev Novi Pazar
Bulgaria
Third League - North-East 2025/2026 
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Third League - North-East 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
9%
35%
56%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Botev Novi Pazar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
56%
/ Medium Confidence
- Botev Novi Pazar haven't matched Ustrem Donchevo's recent run of results.
- 56% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Third League - North-East 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 10%
Botev Novi Pazar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ustrem Donchevo | Botev Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 12 | 8 |
| Draws | 4 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 2.07 | 1.39 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.1 | 1.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 26, 2026 Third League - North-East
Botev Novi Pazar vs Ustrem Donchevo
5:1
Apr 4, 2026 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Botev Novi Pazar
1:1
Sep 27, 2025 Third League - North-East
Botev Novi Pazar vs Ustrem Donchevo
2:1
May 25, 2025 Third League - North-East
Botev Novi Pazar vs Ustrem Donchevo
1:0
Nov 23, 2024 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Botev Novi Pazar
3:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ustrem Donchevo 34 / 100
Botev Novi Pazar 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ustrem Donchevo Botev Novi Pazar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Botev Novi Pazar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Ustrem Donchevo scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Defensive concern: Botev Novi Pazar conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.
Ustrem Donchevo has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Ustrem Donchevo VS Botev Novi Pazar
2 Goals Scored 1.63
3.38 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 63%
88% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Ustrem Donchevo
(Home) 26 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
1 : 1 Septemvri Tervel
20 Sept
Benkovski
3 : 2 Ustrem Donchevo
12 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 4 Volov Shumen
05 Sept
FK Riltzi
4 : 1 Ustrem Donchevo
29 Aug
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 3 Svetkavitsa 2014
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
1 : 1 Septemvri Tervel
12 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 4 Volov Shumen
29 Aug
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 3 Svetkavitsa 2014
22 Aug
Ustrem Donchevo
3 : 4 Olympic Varna
23 May
Ustrem Donchevo
3 : 2 Benkovski
Page 1 of 4
Botev Novi Pazar
(Away) 26 Sept
Cherno More II
1 : 1 Botev Novi Pazar
19 Sept
Botev Novi Pazar
0 : 0 Chernomorets Balchik
13 Sept
Chernolomets
4 : 0 Botev Novi Pazar
05 Sept
Botev Novi Pazar
0 : 0 Ludogorets III
26 Aug
Botev Novi Pazar
5 : 1 Ustrem Donchevo
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Cherno More II
1 : 1 Botev Novi Pazar
13 Sept
Chernolomets
4 : 0 Botev Novi Pazar
22 Aug
Fratria II
3 : 6 Botev Novi Pazar
30 May
Cherno More II
3 : 1 Botev Novi Pazar
16 May
Fratria II
3 : 2 Botev Novi Pazar
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chernomorets Balchik | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 92:14 | 85 |
| 2 | Ludogorets III | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 101:19 | 79 |
| 3 | Septemvri Tervel | 32 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 89:22 | 78 |
| 4 | Volov Shumen | 32 | 23 | 3 | 6 | 93:28 | 72 |
| 5 | Chernolomets | 32 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 78:43 | 63 |
| 6 | Benkovski | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 68:40 | 60 |
| 7 | Cherno More II | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 65:44 | 55 |
| 8 | Ustrem Donchevo | 32 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 73:67 | 54 |
| 9 | Olympic Varna | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 58:80 | 36 |
| 10 | Aksakovo | 32 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 40:68 | 31 |
| 11 | Fratria II | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 40:71 | 30 |
| 12 | Svetkavitsa 2014 | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 26:48 | 29 |
| 13 | Botev Novi Pazar | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34:69 | 29 |
| 14 | Dorostol | 32 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 29:67 | 28 |
| 15 | Spartak Varna II | 32 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 42:72 | 26 |
| 16 | FK Riltzi | 32 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 31:83 | 22 |
| 17 | Svetkavitsa | 32 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 5:129 | 1 |
Promotion - Vtora liga 2025/2026 (Main)
