Sport Picks
Ustrem Donchevo vs Septemvri Tervel - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Bulgaria
Third League - North-East 
AI Match Summary
The Third League - North-East game between Ustrem Donchevo and Septemvri Tervel finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
6%
30%
64%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Septemvri Tervel
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Septemvri Tervel carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Septemvri Tervel's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Third League - North-East form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 10%
Septemvri Tervel Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ustrem Donchevo | Septemvri Tervel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 27 |
| Wins | 12 | 20 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
| Losses | 13 | 3 |
| Goals Scored | 2.1 | 2.63 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.14 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 2.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2026 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Septemvri Tervel
1:1
Mar 21, 2026 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Septemvri Tervel
0:0
Sep 13, 2025 Third League - North-East
Septemvri Tervel vs Ustrem Donchevo
4:1
Mar 8, 2025 Third League - North-East
Septemvri Tervel vs Ustrem Donchevo
1:0
Aug 31, 2024 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Septemvri Tervel
1:4
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ustrem Donchevo 10 / 100
Septemvri Tervel 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ustrem Donchevo Septemvri Tervel
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Septemvri Tervel Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Ustrem Donchevo scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Septemvri Tervel has conceded goals in 44% of their last 27 outings.
Ustrem Donchevo went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Ustrem Donchevo VS Septemvri Tervel
2 Goals Scored 2.25
3.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 50%
88% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Ustrem Donchevo
(Home) 03 Oct
Devnya 2005
2 : 1 Ustrem Donchevo
26 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
1 : 1 Septemvri Tervel
20 Sept
Benkovski
3 : 2 Ustrem Donchevo
12 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 4 Volov Shumen
05 Sept
FK Riltzi
4 : 1 Ustrem Donchevo
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
1 : 1 Septemvri Tervel
12 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 4 Volov Shumen
29 Aug
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 3 Svetkavitsa 2014
22 Aug
Ustrem Donchevo
3 : 4 Olympic Varna
23 May
Ustrem Donchevo
3 : 2 Benkovski
Page 1 of 4
Septemvri Tervel
(Away) 03 Oct
Septemvri Tervel
3 : 0 Septemvri Dragoevo
26 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
1 : 1 Septemvri Tervel
19 Sept
Septemvri Tervel
2 : 1 Fratria II
05 Sept
Septemvri Tervel
5 : 2 Devnya 2005
22 Aug
Septemvri Tervel
1 : 1 Volov Shumen
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
1 : 1 Septemvri Tervel
17 May
Cherno More II
0 : 2 Septemvri Tervel
09 May
Fratria II
0 : 4 Septemvri Tervel
29 Apr
Svetkavitsa 2014
0 : 3 Septemvri Tervel
25 Apr
Benkovski
0 : 2 Septemvri Tervel
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Svetkavitsa 2014 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14:5 | 16 |
| 2 | Ludogorets III | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18:5 | 16 |
| 3 | Volov Shumen | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24:6 | 16 |
| 4 | Chernolomets | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16:6 | 14 |
| 5 | Chernomorets Balchik | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10:4 | 14 |
| 6 | Septemvri Tervel | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12:5 | 11 |
| 7 | Benkovski | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13:6 | 10 |
| 8 | Cherno More II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11:7 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Novi Pazar | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12:9 | 9 |
| 10 | FK Riltzi | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8:15 | 9 |
| 11 | Fratria II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9:24 | 9 |
| 12 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:17 | 8 |
| 13 | Devnya 2005 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8:12 | 9 |
| 14 | Olympic Varna | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 15:21 | 6 |
| 15 | Aksakovo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9:20 | 4 |
| 16 | Ustrem Donchevo | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 13:26 | 1 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2:18 | 0 |
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