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Ustrem Donchevo vs Shumen 2007

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-East 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Third League - North-East 2022/2023 game between Ustrem Donchevo and Shumen 2007 finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ustrem Donchevo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Ustrem Donchevo
15%
Draws
85%
Shumen 2007
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Shumen 2007

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Ustrem Donchevo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Shumen 2007's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Third League - North-East 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 16%
Shumen 2007 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ustrem Donchevo Shumen 2007
Matches Played 36 15
Wins 16 3
Draws 5 1
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 2.08 0.8
Goals Conceded 2.14 2.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 23, 2023 Third League - North-East
Shumen 2007 vs Ustrem Donchevo
0:0
Apr 30, 2023 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Shumen 2007
4:1
Oct 23, 2022 Third League - North-East
Shumen 2007 vs Ustrem Donchevo
4:0
May 28, 2022 Third League - North-East
Shumen 2007 vs Ustrem Donchevo
2:4
Dec 5, 2021 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Shumen 2007
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ustrem Donchevo 10 / 100
Shumen 2007 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ustrem Donchevo Shumen 2007

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shumen 2007 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ustrem Donchevo found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (36 games).

Defensive concern: Shumen 2007 conceded in 87% of 15 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Shumen 2007 has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ustrem Donchevo VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ustrem Donchevo

(Home)
12 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 4
Volov Shumen
05 Sept
FK Riltzi
4 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
29 Aug
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 3
Svetkavitsa 2014
26 Aug
Botev Novi Pazar
5 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
22 Aug
Ustrem Donchevo
3 : 4
Olympic Varna
Page 1 of 8

Shumen 2007

(Away)
03 Jun
Chernolomets
8 : 0
Shumen 2007
21 May
Shumen 2007
3 : 2
Botev Novi Pazar
14 May
Dunav Ruse II
0 : 1
Shumen 2007
06 May
Shumen 2007
0 : 0
Dorostol
30 Apr
Ustrem Donchevo
4 : 1
Shumen 2007
Page 1 of 3

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chernomorets Balchik 28 25 2 1 86:13 77
2 Septemvri Tervel 28 21 5 2 70:18 68
3 Svetkavitsa 28 17 5 6 42:23 56
4 Chernolomets 28 17 4 7 68:24 55
5 Ludogorets III 28 17 3 8 79:31 54
6 Cherno More II 28 15 2 11 63:33 47
7 FK Riltzi 28 13 7 8 46:43 46
8 Spartak Varna II 28 13 5 10 44:35 44
9 Dorostol 28 12 4 12 28:40 40
10 Shumen 2007 28 7 1 20 26:62 22
11 Dunav Ruse II 28 6 4 18 26:63 22
12 Ustrem Donchevo 28 6 3 19 28:67 21
13 Lokomotiv Ruse 28 5 6 17 33:56 21
14 Sportist Toshevo 28 5 3 20 31:96 18
15 Botev Novi Pazar 28 4 0 24 20:86 12
Promotion - Vtora liga 2023/2024 (Main)