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Stadium Background

Uzbekistan vs Iran - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Shomurodov E.
17'
Ezatolahi S.
46'
Sub
Hardani S. In: Rezaeian R.
Out: Hardani S.

AI Match Summary

Uzbekistan in this Friendly International matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Uzbekistan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Uzbekistan
30%
Draws
23%
Iran
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Uzbekistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Uzbekistan have won more games recently than Iran.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Friendly International form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Uzbekistan Clean Sheet 10%
Iran Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uzbekistan Iran
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 19 16
Draws 7 7
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.62 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.09 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 24, 2026 Friendly International
Uzbekistan vs Iran
3:1
Nov 18, 2025 Friendly International
Uzbekistan vs Iran
1:0
Sep 8, 2025 CAFA Nations Cup
Uzbekistan vs Iran
1:0
Mar 25, 2025 World Championship
Iran vs Uzbekistan
2:2
Oct 10, 2024 World Championship
Uzbekistan vs Iran
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uzbekistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Shomurodov E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Norchaev K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Iran Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uzbekistan 30 / 100
Iran 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uzbekistan Iran

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uzbekistan's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Iran's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

Uzbekistan went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Uzbekistan VS Iran
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Uzbekistan

(Home)
06 Oct
South Korea
2 : 0
Uzbekistan
01 Oct
Uzbekistan
4 : 1
Syria
24 Sept
Uzbekistan
3 : 1
Iran
27 Jun
D.R. Congo
3 : 1
Uzbekistan
23 Jun
Portugal
5 : 0
Uzbekistan
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Iran

(Away)
29 Sept
Russia
2 : 0
Iran
24 Sept
Uzbekistan
3 : 1
Iran
27 Jun
Egypt
1 : 1
Iran
21 Jun
Belgium
0 : 0
Iran
16 Jun
Iran
2 : 2
New Zealand
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