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Uzbekistan vs Qatar

World World

World Championship 2026 Milliy Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Uzbekistan play Qatar in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Uzbekistan averaged 1.47 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Qatar averaged 1.04 goals scored and 1.85 conceded. In past meetings, Uzbekistan won 3, Qatar won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 10, 2025 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Uzbekistan and 1.13 for Qatar. This points to a Uzbekistan double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Uzbekistan
18%
Draws
27%
Qatar
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Uzbekistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Uzbekistan picked up more points recently compared to Qatar.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Uzbekistan Clean Sheet 21%
Qatar Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uzbekistan Qatar
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 16 6
Draws 7 7
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.47 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.85
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2025 World Championship
Uzbekistan vs Qatar
3:0
Nov 14, 2024 World Championship
Qatar vs Uzbekistan
3:2
Feb 3, 2024 Asian Cup
Qatar vs Uzbekistan
2:1
Oct 16, 2018 Friendly International
Uzbekistan vs Qatar
2:0
Mar 28, 2017 World Championship
Uzbekistan vs Qatar
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uzbekistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Turgunboev A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Shomurodov E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Qatar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.12
Avg xA / game 0.07

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uzbekistan 54 / 100
Qatar 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uzbekistan Qatar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uzbekistan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Uzbekistan & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.1%
2.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.3%
2.08
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Uzbekistan attacking → ← attacking Qatar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uzbekistan scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Qatar let in goals in 85% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Uzbekistan went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Qatar lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 25
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.13
2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Iran1072119:823
2Uzbekistan1063114:721
3United Arab Emirates1043315:815
4Qatar1041517:2413
5Kyrgyzstan1022612:188
6North Korea100379:213
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1South Korea1064020:722
2Jordan1044216:816
3Iraq104339:915
4Oman103259:1411
5Palestine1024410:1310
6Kuwait100557:205
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Japan1072130:323
2Australia1054116:719
3Saudi Arabia103437:813
4Indonesia103349:2012
5China103077:209
6Bahrain101365:166