Sport Picks

Japan

J1 League 2026 Peace Stadium

V-Varen Nagasaki

Sun, May 17, 2026

3 - 2

04:00 AM

Vissel Kobe

Our Tip

Match Events

21'

Yamaguchi H.

Assist: Matheus Jesus

27'

Muto Y.

Assist: Iino N.

32'

Thuler M.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

V-Varen Nagasaki in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored V-Varen Nagasaki.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

V-Varen Nagasaki

40%

Draws

29%

Vissel Kobe

Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

Vissel Kobe have won more games recently than V-Varen Nagasaki.
Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%

V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 20%

Vissel Kobe Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	V-Varen Nagasaki	Vissel Kobe
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	14	16
Draws	2	2
Losses	12	11
Goals Scored	1.5	1.38
Goals Conceded	1.5	1.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 J1 League

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Vissel Kobe

Possession: 46% - 45% Cards: 1 - 1

3:2

Feb 13, 2026 J1 League

Vissel Kobe vs V-Varen Nagasaki

Possession: 47% - 47% Cards: 2 - 3

2:0

Oct 6, 2018 J1 League

Vissel Kobe vs V-Varen Nagasaki

Possession: 51% - 52% Cards: 1 - 3

1:1

Jul 18, 2018 J1 League

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Vissel Kobe

Possession: 55% - 43% Cards: 1 - 2

0:1

Apr 18, 2018 J.League Cup

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Vissel Kobe

Possession: 43% - 55% Cards: 3 - 4

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

V-Varen Nagasaki Compare

Top Goalscorer Yamaguchi H.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Dudu Giusti

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Vissel Kobe Compare

Top Goalscorer Muto Y.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Thuler M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

V-Varen Nagasaki 32 / 100

Vissel Kobe 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

V-Varen Nagasaki Vissel Kobe

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

V-Varen Nagasaki's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Vissel Kobe let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

V-Varen Nagasaki went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

V-Varen Nagasaki VS Vissel Kobe

1.5 Goals Scored 1.38

1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63

75% Over 1.5 63%

75% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	18	15	3	31:11	45
2	FC Tokyo	18	13	5	32:18	37
3	Machida Zelvia	18	13	5	28:22	37
4	Kawasaki Frontale	18	10	8	26:28	28
5	Verdy	18	10	8	22:26	28
6	Urawa Reds	18	7	11	25:22	25
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	18	6	12	28:31	20
8	Kashiwa Reysol	18	7	11	22:24	20
9	Mito	18	6	12	23:39	18
10	Chiba	18	3	15	18:34	12

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	11	7	29:25	35
2	Cerezo Osaka	18	11	7	30:21	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	10	8	33:31	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	10	8	31:23	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	10	8	31:25	28
6	Okayama	18	8	10	26:29	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	8	10	23:25	24
8	Kyoto	18	8	10	22:28	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	7	11	21:29	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	7	11	21:31	21