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Vado vs Asti Calcio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Arras D.
38' Event
De Rinaldis M.
52' Event
Alfiero V.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 game between Vado and Asti Calcio finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Vado
20%
Draws
40%
Asti Calcio
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Asti Calcio haven't matched Vado's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Vado's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 90%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Vado Clean Sheet 68%
Asti Calcio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vado Asti Calcio
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 19 9
Draws 8 8
Losses 5 14
Goals Scored 2.06 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 2.01 1.20
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Vado vs Asti Calcio
3:2
Sep 14, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Asti Calcio vs Vado
0:2
Apr 13, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Asti Calcio vs Vado
1:1
Dec 1, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Vado vs Asti Calcio
3:1
Jan 7, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Asti Calcio vs Vado
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vado Compare

Top Goalscorer Arras D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader De Rinaldis M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.55
Avg xA / game 1

Asti Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferrari E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.67

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vado 68 / 100
Asti Calcio 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vado Asti Calcio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vado Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 2:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Vado scored in 81% of their last 32 outings.

Asti Calcio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Vado went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vado VS Asti Calcio
2.63 Goals Scored 1.4
1 Goals Conceded 1.4
100% Over 1.5 80%
75% Over 2.5 60%
38% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Vado

(Home)
28 Aug
Pianese
0 : 0
Vado
21 Aug
Vado
2 : 0
Atalanta U23
14 Aug
Vado
2 : 1
Inter U23
10 Aug
Sestri Levante
0 : 3
Vado
05 Aug
Torino
3 : 1
Vado
Page 1 of 7

Asti Calcio

(Away)
10 May
Cairese
0 : 1
Asti Calcio
03 May
Club Milano
4 : 1
Asti Calcio
26 Apr
Asti Calcio
1 : 1
Ligorna
19 Apr
Sestri Levante
1 : 2
Asti Calcio
12 Apr
Asti Calcio
2 : 1
Saluzzo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vado 34 24 6 4 69:24 78
2 Ligorna 34 21 9 4 64:26 72
3 AS Biellese 34 16 9 9 48:29 57
4 Varese FC 34 16 8 10 43:43 56
5 Chisola 34 16 7 11 44:36 55
6 Sestri Levante 34 15 9 10 54:34 54
7 Sanremese 34 13 10 11 37:30 49
8 Valenzana 34 12 9 13 33:48 45
9 Celle Varazze 34 12 8 14 41:47 44
10 Saluzzo 34 11 10 13 48:44 43
11 Club Milano 34 12 6 16 43:49 42
12 Imperia Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:44 41
13 Cairese 34 9 13 12 29:34 40
14 Derthona FbC 34 11 7 16 36:46 40
15 Gozzano 34 9 12 13 37:42 39
16 Asti Calcio 34 8 11 15 32:42 35
17 Lavagnese 34 5 12 17 32:52 27
18 NovaRomentin 34 6 3 25 26:82 16
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Out)