Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vaduz vs Aarau

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League 2025/2026 Rheinpark Stadion, Vaduz
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Zoukit N.
18'
Dickenmann M.
21'
Simani D.

AI Match Summary

Aarau in this Challenge League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aarau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Vaduz
6%
Draws
4%
Aarau
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Vaduz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Vaduz have won more games recently than Aarau.
  • Model gives Vaduz a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Vaduz Clean Sheet 20%
Aarau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vaduz Aarau
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 19 13
Draws 3 6
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.88 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2026 Challenge League
Vaduz vs Aarau
1:2
Mar 13, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Vaduz
2:0
Dec 19, 2025 Challenge League
Vaduz vs Aarau
3:2
Sep 13, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Vaduz
1:0
Apr 18, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Vaduz
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vaduz Compare

Top Goalscorer Cocic M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Vladi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Acquah D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vaduz 85 / 100
Aarau 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vaduz Aarau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vaduz found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

Aarau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Vaduz went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vaduz VS Aarau
1.88 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Vaduz

(Home)
30 Jul
Atletic Escaldes
0 : 2
Vaduz
26 Jul
Lugano
2 : 1
Vaduz
23 Jul
Vaduz
4 : 0
Atletic Escaldes
17 Jul
Lugano
1 : 2
Vaduz
10 Jul
Altach
1 : 0
Vaduz
Page 1 of 6

Aarau

(Away)
24 Jul
Etoile-Carouge
3 : 0
Aarau
18 Jul
Aarau
2 : 1
Union Berlin
10 Jul
A. Lustenau
1 : 0
Aarau
30 Jun
Aarau
1 : 3
St. Gallen II
21 May
Grasshoppers
2 : 1
Aarau
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vaduz36256575:4181
2Aarau36255677:4780
3Yverdon36207975:4867
4Lausanne Ouchy361481459:5150
5Xamax361471555:5649
6Rapperswil-Jona361422052:6244
7Etoile-Carouge3610101646:5440
8Wil3610101639:5540
9Stade Nyonnais365131833:6028
10Bellinzona36582340:7723
Promotion - Super League (Main)
Promotion - Super League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Promotion League (Main)