Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vag vs Madla IL

Norway Norway

Division 3 - Group 4
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Roppestad D. A.
66' Event
Dessingue M.
75' Event
Marchewka N.

AI Match Summary

The Division 3 - Group 4 game between Vag and Madla IL finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Madla IL.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Vag
20%
Draws
45%
Madla IL
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Madla IL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Madla IL carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Madla IL taking it.
  • Regular Division 3 - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Vag Clean Sheet 10%
Madla IL Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vag Madla IL
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 17
Draws 3 8
Losses 15 4
Goals Scored 1.66 2.72
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Division 3 - Group 4
Vag vs Madla IL
2:3
Apr 25, 2026 Division 3 - Group 4
Madla IL vs Vag
2:1
Aug 9, 2025 Division 3 - Group 5
Vag vs Madla IL
2:0
Jun 14, 2025 Division 3 - Group 5
Madla IL vs Vag
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vag Compare

Top Goalscorer Roppestad D. A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Wahlstrom C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Madla IL Compare

Top Goalscorer Dessingue M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marchewka N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.33
Avg xA / game 1.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vag 10 / 100
Madla IL 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vag Madla IL

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Madla IL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vag scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Defensive concern: Madla IL conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Vag went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vag VS Madla IL
1.63 Goals Scored 2.75
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Vag

(Home)
26 Sept
Viking 2
1 : 2
Vag
19 Sept
Vag
2 : 2
Brodd
12 Sept
Haugesund 2
0 : 3
Vag
05 Sept
Vag
3 : 2
Akra
30 Aug
Hinna
3 : 0
Vag
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Madla IL

(Away)
26 Sept
Akra
0 : 6
Madla IL
21 Sept
Madla IL
1 : 1
Haugesund 2
12 Sept
Hinna
1 : 4
Madla IL
05 Sept
Flekkeroy
0 : 2
Madla IL
31 Aug
Madla IL
4 : 0
Odds BK 2
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