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Vag vs Madla IL

Norway Norway

Division 3 - Group 4
Sat, Aug 1, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vag host Madla IL in the Division 3 - Group 4. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Recent numbers: Vag at 1.13 goals for, 2.13 against; Madla IL at 2.13 for, 1.38 against. Head-to-head, Vag have won 1 to Madla IL's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 25, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 2.13, favoring Madla IL. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Vag
33%
Draws
40%
Madla IL
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Madla IL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Madla IL carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Madla IL taking it.
  • Regular Division 3 - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Vag Clean Sheet 10%
Madla IL Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vag Madla IL
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 15
Draws 2 7
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.13 2.13
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Division 3 - Group 4
Madla IL vs Vag
2:1
Aug 9, 2025 Division 3 - Group 5
Vag vs Madla IL
2:0
Jun 14, 2025 Division 3 - Group 5
Madla IL vs Vag
3:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vag 26 / 100
Madla IL 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vag Madla IL

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAD Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vag scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Madla IL let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.67 goals per match.

Vag went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vag VS Madla IL
1.13 Goals Scored 2.13
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Vag

(Home)
27 Jul
Odds BK 2
1 : 1
Vag
25 Jun
Vag
3 : 2
Viking 2
21 Jun
Mandalskameratene
2 : 1
Vag
15 Jun
Vag
3 : 2
Stabaek 2
30 May
Vag
0 : 1
Staal Jorpeland
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Madla IL

(Away)
25 Jul
Madla IL
5 : 1
Flekkeroy
27 Jun
Madla IL
2 : 2
Mandalskameratene
22 Jun
Haugesund 2
3 : 2
Madla IL
13 Jun
Madla IL
3 : 1
Akra
30 May
Vindbjart
2 : 2
Madla IL
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