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Valerenga vs Aalesund

Norway Norway

Eliteserien Intility Arena
Thu, Jul 16, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Valerenga host Aalesund in the Eliteserien. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Aalesund have shipped 1.25 goals a game lately, while Valerenga have conceded 2 and scored 1.38. Past meetings favor Valerenga slightly — 5-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 24, 2024, ending 4:1. xG projections (1.31 - 1.81) back Valerenga to edge this. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Valerenga
30%
Draws
34%
Aalesund
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Valerenga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Valerenga come out ahead of Aalesund on wins alone.
  • Valerenga are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Valerenga here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Valerenga Clean Sheet 11%
Aalesund Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valerenga Aalesund
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 14 12
Draws 4 6
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.38 1.63
Goals Conceded 2 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 24, 2024 OBOS-ligaen
Valerenga vs Aalesund
4:1
May 11, 2024 OBOS-ligaen
Aalesund vs Valerenga
0:2
Sep 17, 2023 Eliteserien
Valerenga vs Aalesund
3:1
Apr 10, 2023 Eliteserien
Aalesund vs Valerenga
0:1
Aug 7, 2022 Eliteserien
Valerenga vs Aalesund
4:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valerenga 35 / 100
Aalesund 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valerenga Aalesund

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Valerenga scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Aalesund's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Valerenga stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Valerenga VS Aalesund
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Viking1090129:1027
2Tromso1374218:1425
3Bodo/Glimt1172228:1123
4Lillestrom1161417:1119
5Molde1161418:1319
6Ham-Kam1052317:1617
7Sarpsborg 081142513:1614
8Sandefjord1142510:1314
9Valerenga1142513:1714
10Fredrikstad1142515:2014
11Brann1241724:2013
12KFUM Oslo1133512:1712
13Aalesund1125415:2011
14Kristiansund1132611:1811
15Rosenborg112369:189
16Start1214713:287