Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova AC

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 2 Estadio Israel Pinheiro - VEC, Itabira
Valeriodoce Logo

Valeriodoce

0 - 1
FT
Villa Nova AC Logo

Villa Nova AC

Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Gabriel Falcao
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Valeriodoce
30%
Draws
39%
Villa Nova AC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Villa Nova AC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Valeriodoce carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Valeriodoce's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Valeriodoce have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Villa Nova AC, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Valeriodoce Clean Sheet 68%
Villa Nova AC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valeriodoce Villa Nova AC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 13 6
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 1.03 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 Mineiro 2
Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova AC
0:1
Jul 18, 2026 Mineiro 2
Villa Nova AC vs Valeriodoce
1:1
Jul 12, 2026 Mineiro 2
Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova AC
1:0
May 30, 2026 Mineiro 2
Villa Nova AC vs Valeriodoce
2:2
Mar 23, 2005 Mineiro
Villa Nova AC vs Valeriodoce
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valeriodoce Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Villa Nova AC Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel Falcao
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valeriodoce 46 / 100
Villa Nova AC 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valeriodoce Villa Nova AC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Valeriodoce scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Villa Nova AC has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Valeriodoce has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Valeriodoce VS Villa Nova AC
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
0.25 Goals Conceded 1
25% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Valeriodoce

(Home)
26 Jul
Valeriodoce
0 : 1
Villa Nova AC
18 Jul
Villa Nova AC
1 : 1
Valeriodoce
12 Jul
Valeriodoce
1 : 0
Villa Nova AC
05 Jul
Coimbra Esporte Clube
0 : 0
Valeriodoce
01 Jul
Valeriodoce
1 : 0
Democrata SL
Page 1 of 6

Villa Nova AC

(Away)
15 Aug
Democrata SL
1 : 3
Villa Nova AC
12 Aug
Villa Nova AC
0 : 1
Democrata SL
08 Aug
Aymores
3 : 3
Villa Nova AC
02 Aug
Villa Nova AC
1 : 0
Aymores
26 Jul
Valeriodoce
0 : 1
Villa Nova AC
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Uberaba 1
Mamore 2
Democrata SL 6
Patrocinense 2
Valeriodoce 1
Villa Nova AC 2
Boa 1
Aymores 3
Semi-finals
Mamore 2
Democrata SL 5
Villa Nova AC 4
Aymores 3
Final
Democrata SL 2
Villa Nova AC 3