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Valladares vs UD Ourense

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Cellerino G.
40' Event
Cellerino G.
60' Event
Cellerino G.

AI Match Summary

UD Ourense in this Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored UD Ourense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Valladares
30%
Draws
23%
UD Ourense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Valladares

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to UD Ourense lately — more wins on the board than Valladares.
  • Win probability leans Valladares's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Valladares Clean Sheet 18%
UD Ourense Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valladares UD Ourense
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 15
Draws 11 7
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.03 1.42
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Valladares vs UD Ourense
0:4
Oct 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
UD Ourense vs Valladares
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valladares Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

UD Ourense Compare

Top Goalscorer Cellerino G.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Vazquez O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.24
Avg xA / game 0.76

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valladares 76 / 100
UD Ourense 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valladares UD Ourense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Valladares Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Valladares found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

UD Ourense has conceded goals in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Solid form: Valladares remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS UD Ourense
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Valladares

(Home)
11 May
Valladares
3 : 1
Silva SD
03 May
Estradense
2 : 0
Valladares
27 Apr
Valladares
0 : 0
Gran Pena
20 Apr
Somozas
1 : 1
Valladares
17 Apr
Valladares
2 : 2
Sarriana
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UD Ourense

(Away)
19 Sept
Unionistas de Salamanca
3 : 1
UD Ourense
12 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 3
UD Logrones
05 Sept
Mirandes
2 : 0
UD Ourense
29 Aug
UD Ourense
0 : 1
Ponferradina
19 Aug
UD Ourense
2 : 0
Barco
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Ourense 34 21 11 2 54:20 74
2 Estradense 34 18 6 10 52:37 60
3 Sarriana 34 18 5 11 66:48 59
4 Racing Club Villalbes 34 16 10 8 40:28 58
5 Noia 34 14 13 7 42:31 55
6 Arosa SC 34 15 10 9 58:46 55
7 Alondras 34 14 10 10 44:40 52
8 Lugo B 34 12 9 13 43:45 45
9 CD Boiro 34 11 11 12 40:39 44
10 Somozas 34 10 10 14 36:43 40
11 Gran Pena 34 9 13 12 44:51 40
12 Viveiro 34 11 6 17 47:52 39
13 Silva SD 34 9 12 13 40:48 39
14 Atletico Arteixo 34 9 11 14 40:42 38
15 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 10 7 17 29:45 37
16 Valladares 34 8 13 13 33:52 37
17 Villalonga 34 10 6 18 32:51 36
18 Betanzos CF 34 6 7 21 29:51 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2024/2025 (Play Offs)