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Valmiera 2 vs FK Smiltene - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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1. Liga 2024 Jāņa Daliņa stadions, Valmiera
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Match Events

37' Event
Lucas Aruba
46'
Sub
Volkovs K. In: Maurs-Boks E.
Out: Volkovs K.
46'
Sub
Libietis K. In: Gaismins V.
Out: Libietis K.

AI Match Summary

The 1. Liga 2024 game between Valmiera 2 and FK Smiltene finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Valmiera 2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Valmiera 2
20%
Draws
44%
FK Smiltene
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FK Smiltene

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Valmiera 2 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Valmiera 2 taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Valmiera 2 Clean Sheet 20%
FK Smiltene Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valmiera 2 FK Smiltene
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 11 6
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 19
Goals Scored 1.53 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.47 2.56
Expected Goals (xG) 1.98 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2024 1. Liga
Valmiera 2 vs FK Smiltene
2:0
May 11, 2024 1. Liga
FK Smiltene vs Valmiera 2
2:4
Nov 4, 2023 1. Liga
FK Smiltene vs Valmiera 2
2:2
Jul 23, 2023 1. Liga
Valmiera 2 vs FK Smiltene
0:0
Sep 10, 2022 1. Liga
Valmiera 2 vs FK Smiltene
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valmiera 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Aruba
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pulis I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.52
Avg xA / game 0.99

FK Smiltene Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valmiera 2 67 / 100
FK Smiltene 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valmiera 2 FK Smiltene

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Valmiera 2 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Smiltene's defensive record shows goals conceded in 91% of 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Valmiera 2 found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Valmiera 2 has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS FK Smiltene
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 2.75
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Valmiera 2

(Home)
10 Nov
Valmiera 2
0 : 0
Leevon PPK
02 Nov
Valmiera 2
2 : 0
Alberts JDFS
27 Oct
Valmiera 2
2 : 3
Skanste
18 Oct
Valmiera 2
2 : 2
Riga FC 2
05 Oct
Super Nova
4 : 1
Valmiera 2
Page 1 of 6

FK Smiltene

(Away)
19 Sept
Super Nova 2
0 : 2
FK Smiltene
12 Sept
FK Smiltene
4 : 1
Riga Mariners
05 Sept
Alberts JDFS
3 : 2
FK Smiltene
29 Aug
FK Smiltene
0 : 6
FK Metta
23 Aug
Leevon PPK
4 : 2
FK Smiltene
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Super Nova 26 21 2 3 65:11 65
2 RFS 2 26 20 3 3 71:18 63
3 Alberts JDFS 26 19 1 6 53:21 58
4 Riga FC 2 26 13 9 4 59:26 48
5 Skanste 26 12 5 9 39:28 41
6 Valmiera 2 26 10 4 12 41:39 34
7 Marupe 26 9 6 11 25:44 33
8 Leevon PPK 26 9 4 13 36:38 31
9 AFA Olaine 26 8 6 12 45:50 30
10 JFK Ventspils 26 8 6 12 32:37 30
11 Ogre United 26 7 8 11 37:44 29
12 Tukums 2000 2 26 5 4 17 25:68 19
13 FK Smiltene 26 4 5 17 24:62 17
14 Rezekne 26 3 5 18 18:84 14
Promotion - Virsliga 2025 (Main)
Promotion - 1. Liga 2024 (Promotion)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2024 (Relegation)