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Valur vs Stjarnan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Hlídarendi, Reykjavík
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Waren B.
25' Event
Jonsson J.
Assist: Veseli S.
28'
Fridjonsson S.

AI Match Summary

The Besta deild karla game between Valur and Stjarnan finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Stjarnan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Valur
30%
Draws
39%
Stjarnan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Stjarnan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Stjarnan carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Valur are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Besta deild karla form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.8%
Valur Clean Sheet 10%
Stjarnan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valur Stjarnan
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 5 5
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.67 1.87
Goals Conceded 2.07 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 3, 2026 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Stjarnan
2:3
Apr 27, 2026 Besta deild karla
Stjarnan vs Valur
2:4
Oct 4, 2025 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Stjarnan
3:2
Sep 14, 2025 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Stjarnan
1:2
Jul 1, 2025 Icelandic Cup
Valur vs Stjarnan
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valur Compare

Top Goalscorer Jonsson J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Veldman M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Stjarnan Compare

Top Goalscorer Waren B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vilhjalmsson A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valur 34 / 100
Stjarnan 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valur Stjarnan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Valur's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Stjarnan's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Valur stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Valur VS Stjarnan
1.63 Goals Scored 2.13
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Valur

(Home)
20 Sept
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1 : 1
Valur
13 Sept
Valur
4 : 1
Thor Akureyri
05 Sept
Keflavik
1 : 2
Valur
30 Aug
Valur
2 : 2
Akranes
23 Aug
Vikingur Reykjavik
2 : 0
Valur
Page 1 of 6

Stjarnan

(Away)
20 Sept
Hafnarfjordur
5 : 2
Stjarnan
13 Sept
Stjarnan
2 : 0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
06 Sept
Stjarnan
2 : 2
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
31 Aug
Breidablik
0 : 2
Stjarnan
23 Aug
Stjarnan
4 : 2
Thor Akureyri
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 67:21 53
2 Fram 22 13 6 3 56:42 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 74:49 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 43:41 30
5 Akranes 22 8 6 8 39:41 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 33:38 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 42:50 28
8 Valur 22 8 3 11 39:45 27
9 Hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 27:39 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 22:50 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 35:48 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 32:45 18
Promotion - Besta deild karla (Championship Group)
Relegation - Besta deild karla (Relegation Group)