Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vanuatu U19 vs Papua New Guinea U19

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Championship U19 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Maliwan T.
22' Event
Moses N.
37' Event
Natou J.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-2, with Vanuatu U19 advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Vanuatu U19
20%
Draws
65%
Papua New Guinea U19
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Papua New Guinea U19

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Papua New Guinea U19's 1.55 goals per match outpaces what Vanuatu U19 have produced (1.43).
  • Papua New Guinea U19 are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Vanuatu U19, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Vanuatu U19 Clean Sheet 10%
Papua New Guinea U19 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vanuatu U19 Papua New Guinea U19
Matches Played 23 22
Wins 7 7
Draws 4 1
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.43 1.55
Goals Conceded 2.3 2.86
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 15, 2024 OFC Championship U19
Vanuatu U19 vs Papua New Guinea U19
3:2
May 31, 2014 OFC Championship U19
Papua New Guinea U19 vs Vanuatu U19
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vanuatu U19 Compare

Top Goalscorer Maliwan T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Numake J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Papua New Guinea U19 Compare

Top Goalscorer Moses N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vanuatu U19 10 / 100
Papua New Guinea U19 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vanuatu U19 Papua New Guinea U19

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Papua New Guinea U19 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.50 goals as a typical output.

Vanuatu U19 scored in 65% of their last 23 games.

Papua New Guinea U19 let in goals in 77% of their last 22 matches.

Vanuatu U19 has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Vanuatu U19 VS Papua New Guinea U19
1.75 Goals Scored 2.13
2.5 Goals Conceded 2.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Vanuatu U19

(Home)
12 Sept
Samoa U19
3 : 1
Vanuatu U19
08 Sept
Vanuatu U19
0 : 6
New Zealand U19
04 Sept
Vanuatu U19
1 : 1
Tahiti U19
01 Sept
Fiji U19
7 : 2
Vanuatu U19
21 Aug
Vanuatu U19
3 : 3
Australia U17
Page 1 of 5

Papua New Guinea U19

(Away)
11 Sept
Papua New Guinea U19
4 : 0
Fiji U19
06 Sept
Papua New Guinea U19
0 : 7
New Caledonia U19
04 Sept
Papua New Guinea U19
4 : 2
Samoa U19
31 Aug
Solomon Islands U19
1 : 0
Papua New Guinea U19
13 Jun
Papua New Guinea U19
5 : 1
Cook Islands U19
Page 1 of 5

Tournament Bracket & Draw

5th place
Tahiti U19 4
Samoa U19 0
Vanuatu U19 3
Papua New Guinea U19 2