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Vanuatu U19 vs Papua New Guinea U19

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Championship U19 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vanuatu U19 play Papua New Guinea U19 in the OFC Championship U19 2024. Vanuatu U19 are favorites here. Recently, Vanuatu U19 averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.89 conceded. Papua New Guinea U19 averaged 1.44 goals scored and 2.94 conceded. In past meetings, Vanuatu U19 won 2, Papua New Guinea U19 won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 15, 2024 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.38 for Vanuatu U19 and 1.00 for Papua New Guinea U19. This points to a Vanuatu U19 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Vanuatu U19
15%
Draws
28%
Papua New Guinea U19
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vanuatu U19

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Vanuatu U19 picked up more points recently compared to Papua New Guinea U19.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.38 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 77%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 77%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Vanuatu U19 Clean Sheet 23%
Papua New Guinea U19 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vanuatu U19 Papua New Guinea U19
Matches Played 19 18
Wins 7 5
Draws 3 1
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.53 1.44
Goals Conceded 1.89 2.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 3.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 15, 2024 OFC Championship U19
Vanuatu U19 vs Papua New Guinea U19
3:2
May 31, 2014 OFC Championship U19
Papua New Guinea U19 vs Vanuatu U19
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vanuatu U19 Compare

Top Goalscorer Maliwan T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Numake J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Papua New Guinea U19 Compare

Top Goalscorer Moses N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vanuatu U19 56 / 100
Papua New Guinea U19 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vanuatu U19 Papua New Guinea U19

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vanuatu U19 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Vanuatu U19 & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16.3%
2.04
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.6%
1.41
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vanuatu U19 attacking → ← attacking Papua New Guinea U19

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vanuatu U19 scored in 63% of their last 19 games.

Papua New Guinea U19 let in goals in 78% of their last 18 matches.

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

Vanuatu U19 went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Papua New Guinea U19 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 16
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.63