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Varbergs GIF vs Bergdalens IK

Sweden Sweden

Division 2 - Västra Götaland 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Varbergs GIF play Bergdalens IK in the Division 2 - Västra Götaland 2025. Varbergs GIF are favorites here. Recently, Varbergs GIF averaged 1.23 goals scored and 2.13 conceded. Bergdalens IK averaged 1.1 goals scored and 3.57 conceded. In past meetings, Varbergs GIF won 4, Bergdalens IK won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 12, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.88 for Varbergs GIF and 1.44 for Bergdalens IK. This points to a Varbergs GIF double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Varbergs GIF
15%
Draws
20%
Bergdalens IK
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Varbergs GIF

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Varbergs GIF picked up more points recently compared to Bergdalens IK.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.88 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 73%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 73%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Varbergs GIF Clean Sheet 16%
Bergdalens IK Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varbergs GIF Bergdalens IK
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 4
Draws 2 3
Losses 19 23
Goals Scored 1.23 1.1
Goals Conceded 2.13 3.57
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 5.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 12, 2025 Division 2 - Västra Götaland
Varbergs GIF vs Bergdalens IK
1:0
Jun 15, 2025 Division 2 - Västra Götaland
Bergdalens IK vs Varbergs GIF
1:5
Jun 30, 2024 Division 2 - Västra Götaland
Varbergs GIF vs Bergdalens IK
7:1
Apr 7, 2024 Division 2 - Västra Götaland
Bergdalens IK vs Varbergs GIF
0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varbergs GIF 62 / 100
Bergdalens IK 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varbergs GIF Bergdalens IK

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varbergs GIF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Varbergs GIF & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +13.7%
1.75
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.8%
1.49
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Varbergs GIF attacking → ← attacking Bergdalens IK

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varbergs GIF scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Bergdalens IK let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.25 goals.

Varbergs GIF went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Bergdalens IK lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 15
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
2.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 5.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Laholms26193469:3360
2Tvaaker26176370:2457
3Astorps26136743:3245
4Onsala26135864:4144
5Frolunda261331050:5042
6Lindome261321163:5441
7Qviding261151057:4838
8Jonsereds26108848:4838
9BK Astrio261061055:4436
10Landvetter261031347:5533
11Hestrafors26681240:4826
12Boljan26651533:5923
13Varbergs GIF26711829:5822
14Bergdalens IK26232125:999