Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vardar vs Arsimi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North Macedonia North Macedonia

1. MFL
Vardar Logo

Vardar

2 - 0
FT
Arsimi Logo

Arsimi

Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Mislimi M.
25' Event
Zakaric G.
29'
Aliti A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The 1. MFL game between Vardar and Arsimi finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vardar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Vardar
30%
Draws
19%
Arsimi
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vardar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Vardar carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Vardar a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Vardar Clean Sheet 20%
Arsimi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vardar Arsimi
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 19 11
Draws 4 7
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 2.1 1.48
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 7, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Arsimi
2:0
Mar 21, 2026 1. MFL
Arsimi vs Vardar
1:0
Feb 11, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Arsimi
5:1
Sep 18, 2025 1. MFL
Arsimi vs Vardar
1:4
Jul 12, 2023 Club Friendly
Vardar vs Arsimi
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vardar Compare

Top Goalscorer Zakaric G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Spahiu E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Arsimi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vardar 76 / 100
Arsimi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vardar Arsimi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vardar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vardar scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Vardar stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Arsimi has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Vardar VS Arsimi
2.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Vardar

(Home)
11 Oct
FK Skopje
1 : 2
Vardar
19 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Shkendija Haracine
12 Sept
Bashkimi
3 : 3
Vardar
07 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Arsimi
03 Sept
Ovce Pole
0 : 5
Vardar
Page 1 of 6

Arsimi

(Away)
10 Oct
Arsimi
1 : 1
Sileks
24 Sept
Mogila
0 : 12
Arsimi
21 Sept
Struga
6 : 0
Arsimi
11 Sept
Arsimi
2 : 2
Shkendija Tetovo
07 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Arsimi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shkendija Tetovo 9 6 2 1 21:9 20
2 Struga 9 5 2 2 20:7 17
3 Vardar 9 5 2 2 16:9 17
4 Tikves 9 4 4 1 20:7 16
5 Shkendija Haracine 9 4 2 3 7:10 14
6 Sileks 9 2 4 3 14:11 10
7 Bregalnica Stip 9 3 1 5 11:16 10
8 Arsimi 9 2 3 4 7:20 9
9 Bashkimi 9 2 1 6 9:26 7
10 FK Skopje 9 0 3 6 4:14 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. MFL (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL 2027/2028 (Main)