Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vardar vs Novaci

North Macedonia North Macedonia

Macedonian Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Spahiu E.
18' Event
Omeragic A.
44' Event
Jovanovski S.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Vardar in this Macedonian Cup tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Vardar
22%
Draws
18%
Novaci
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Vardar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Novaci haven't matched Vardar's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Vardar a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Vardar have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Vardar, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Vardar have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Vardar Clean Sheet 68%
Novaci Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vardar Novaci
Matches Played 32 27
Wins 20 12
Draws 4 5
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 2.38 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 22, 2025 Macedonian Cup
Vardar vs Novaci
3:1
Sep 18, 2024 Macedonian Cup
Novaci vs Vardar
0:2
Aug 18, 2010 Macedonian Cup
Novaci vs Vardar
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vardar Compare

Top Goalscorer Spahiu E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Omeragic A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Novaci Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vardar 68 / 100
Novaci 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vardar Novaci

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.67 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Vardar scored in 75% of their last 32 outings.

Solid form: Vardar remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Novaci conceded in 56% of 27 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Vardar VS Novaci
2.38 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Vardar

(Home)
22 Jul
Vardar
2 : 3
Riga FC
14 Jul
KuPS
2 : 3
Vardar
07 Jul
Vardar
0 : 2
KuPS
30 Jun
Virtus
2 : 3
Vardar
27 Jun
La Fiorita
1 : 1
Vardar
Page 1 of 7

Novaci

(Away)
18 Jul
Ohrid
1 : 0
Novaci
23 May
Novaci
3 : 3
Osogovo
16 May
Shkendija Haracine
5 : 1
Novaci
10 May
Novaci
1 : 0
Belasica Strumica
02 May
Sloga Vinica
0 : 2
Novaci
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Vardar-
TBD-
Pcinja0
Novaci3
Ohrid2
Brera Strumica1
Kozuf Gevgelija0
Shkupi2
Belasica Strumica3
Arsimi2
Bashkimi 20081
Detonit Plackovica4
Pobeda0
Bashkimi4
Evrotip Online1
Sileks7
Ljuboten Tetovo0
Makedonija GP14
TBD-
Struga-
Jeni Maale0
Shkendija Tetovo9
FK Skopje0
Tikves1
Shkendija Haracine2
Kamenica Sasa1
Teteks1
Pelister2
Karbinci0
Rabotnicki16
Pobeda Valandovo0
Bregalnica Stip6
1/8-finals
Vardar3
Novaci1
Ohrid3
Shkupi0
Belasica Strumica0
Detonit Plackovica1
Bashkimi1
Sileks2
Makedonija GP0
Struga5
Shkendija Tetovo2
Tikves0
Shkendija Haracine1
Pelister0
Rabotnicki2
Bregalnica Stip1
Quarter-finals
Vardar1
Ohrid2
Detonit Plackovica0
Sileks3
Struga2
Shkendija Tetovo3
Shkendija Haracine3
Rabotnicki1
Semi-finals
Ohrid1
Sileks2
Shkendija Tetovo5
Shkendija Haracine2
Final
Sileks1
Shkendija Tetovo0