Sport Picks
Match Events
9'
9'
Spahiu E.
18'
18'
Omeragic A.
44'
44'
Jovanovski S.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Vardar in this Macedonian Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
30%
27%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vardar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Novaci haven't matched Vardar's recent run of results.
- Model gives Vardar a 43% chance of winning this.
- Vardar have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Vardar, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Vardar have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Vardar Clean Sheet 68%
Novaci Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Vardar | Novaci |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 17 | 13 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 2.13 | 1.41 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 0.97 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 22, 2025 Macedonian Cup
Vardar vs Novaci
3:1
Sep 18, 2024 Macedonian Cup
Novaci vs Vardar
0:2
Aug 18, 2010 Macedonian Cup
Novaci vs Vardar
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Vardar Compare
Top Goalscorer Spahiu E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Omeragic A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Novaci Compare
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Vardar 95 / 100
Novaci 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Vardar Novaci
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Vardar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Vardar scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 3.67 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Vardar remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Defensive concern: Novaci conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Vardar VS Novaci
2 Goals Scored 0.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 13%
38% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Vardar
(Home) 12 Sept
Bashkimi
3 : 3 Vardar
07 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0 Arsimi
03 Sept
Ovce Pole
0 : 5 Vardar
31 Aug
Tikves
1 : 1 Vardar
24 Aug
Vardar
4 : 1 Sileks
Page 1 of 6
07 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0 Arsimi
24 Aug
Vardar
4 : 1 Sileks
09 Aug
Vardar
0 : 2 Shkendija Tetovo
25 Jul
Vardar
2 : 0 Bregalnica Stip
22 Jul
Vardar
2 : 3 Riga FC
Page 1 of 3
Novaci
(Away) 13 Sept
Novaci
3 : 1 Detonit Plackovica
09 Sept
Novaci
1 : 0 Ohrid
05 Sept
Kamjani
1 : 0 Novaci
29 Aug
Osogovo
0 : 0 Novaci
22 Aug
Novaci
0 : 1 Belasica Strumica
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Kamjani
1 : 0 Novaci
29 Aug
Osogovo
0 : 0 Novaci
15 Aug
Ohrid
2 : 1 Novaci
25 Jul
Kozuf Gevgelija
1 : 0 Novaci
18 Jul
Ohrid
1 : 0 Novaci
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Vardar -
TBD -
Pcinja 0
Novaci 3
Ohrid 2
Brera Strumica 1
Kozuf Gevgelija 0
Shkupi 2
Belasica Strumica 3
Arsimi 2
Bashkimi 2008 1
Detonit Plackovica 4
Pobeda 0
Bashkimi 4
Evrotip Online 1
Sileks 7
Ljuboten Tetovo 0
Makedonija GP 14
TBD -
Struga -
Jeni Maale 0
Shkendija Tetovo 9
FK Skopje 0
Tikves 1
Shkendija Haracine 2
Kamenica Sasa 1
Teteks 1
Pelister 2
Karbinci 0
Rabotnicki 16
Pobeda Valandovo 0
Bregalnica Stip 6
1/8-finals
Vardar 3
Novaci 1
Ohrid 3
Shkupi 0
Belasica Strumica 0
Detonit Plackovica 1
Bashkimi 1
Sileks 2
Makedonija GP 0
Struga 5
Shkendija Tetovo 2
Tikves 0
Shkendija Haracine 1
Pelister 0
Rabotnicki 2
Bregalnica Stip 1
Quarter-finals
Vardar 1
Ohrid 2
Detonit Plackovica 0
Sileks 3
Struga 2
Shkendija Tetovo 3
Shkendija Haracine 3
Rabotnicki 1
Semi-finals
Ohrid 1
Sileks 2
Shkendija Tetovo 5
Shkendija Haracine 2
Final
Sileks 1
Shkendija Tetovo 0
