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Varea vs Pena Balsamaiso - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Fajardo W.
53' Event
Vega S.
83' Event
Ubis E.

AI Match Summary

Varea in this Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Varea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Varea
35%
Draws
0%
Pena Balsamaiso
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Varea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Varea have won more games recently than Pena Balsamaiso.
  • Varea are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 48%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Varea Clean Sheet 68%
Pena Balsamaiso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varea Pena Balsamaiso
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 0
Draws 9 10
Losses 5 20
Goals Scored 1.1 0.77
Goals Conceded 0.69 2.53
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 0.98
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Pena Balsamaiso
3:0
Sep 28, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Pena Balsamaiso vs Varea
2:3
Mar 30, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Pena Balsamaiso vs Varea
0:0
Nov 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Pena Balsamaiso
0:1
Mar 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Pena Balsamaiso vs Varea
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varea Compare

Top Goalscorer Fajardo W.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vega S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Pena Balsamaiso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.89
Avg xA / game 0.54

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varea 95 / 100
Pena Balsamaiso 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varea Pena Balsamaiso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varea Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Pena Balsamaiso conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Varea has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Pena Balsamaiso's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Varea found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Varea VS Pena Balsamaiso
0.75 Goals Scored 1.33
0.63 Goals Conceded 4
38% Over 1.5 100%
13% Over 2.5 83%
13% Over 3.5 83%

Recent Form & Match History

Varea

(Home)
04 Oct
Oyonesa
1 : 1
Varea
27 Sept
Varea
1 : 0
CDFC La Calzada
20 Sept
Pradejon
1 : 1
Varea
13 Sept
Varea
0 : 0
San Marcial
06 Sept
Cenicero
1 : 1
Varea
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Pena Balsamaiso

(Away)
10 May
Pena Balsamaiso
0 : 5
UD Logrones B
30 Apr
Oyonesa
4 : 3
Pena Balsamaiso
26 Apr
Pena Balsamaiso
0 : 2
Pradejon
19 Apr
Anguiano
4 : 2
Pena Balsamaiso
12 Apr
Pena Balsamaiso
2 : 5
Haro Deportivo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones B 34 26 8 0 99:22 86
2 Varea 34 22 7 5 51:25 73
3 Arnedo 34 21 9 4 72:26 72
4 CD Calahorra 34 17 12 5 86:26 63
5 Oyonesa 34 18 7 9 54:41 61
6 Anguiano 34 17 9 8 49:36 60
7 Haro Deportivo 34 14 9 11 54:46 51
8 Agoncillo 34 13 8 13 59:49 47
9 Vianes 34 11 9 14 39:51 42
10 Yague 34 9 13 12 48:52 40
11 San Marcial 34 10 9 15 39:59 39
12 Berceo 34 10 9 15 42:50 39
13 CDFC La Calzada 34 10 8 16 40:55 38
14 Comillas CF 34 11 5 18 32:58 38
15 Pradejon 34 9 8 17 30:49 35
16 Villegas 34 7 7 20 36:66 28
17 Autol 34 4 6 24 20:80 18
18 Pena Balsamaiso 34 0 11 23 27:86 11
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 (Play Offs)