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Varea vs San Marcial

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 16 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Varea
35%
Draws
47%
San Marcial
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: San Marcial

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Varea lately — more wins on the board than San Marcial.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 16 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Varea have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Varea Clean Sheet 20%
San Marcial Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varea San Marcial
Matches Played 36 29
Wins 23 9
Draws 8 9
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 1.58 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.69 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs San Marcial
0:0
Mar 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs San Marcial
1:0
Oct 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Varea
0:2
May 7, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Varea
1:5
May 8, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Varea
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varea 36 / 100
San Marcial 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varea San Marcial

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Marcial Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varea's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 36 recent games.

Defensive concern: San Marcial conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Varea remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Varea VS San Marcial
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
38% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Varea

(Home)
13 Sept
Varea
0 : 0
San Marcial
06 Sept
Cenicero
1 : 1
Varea
24 May
Varea
0 : 2
Oyonesa
17 May
Oyonesa
0 : 0
Varea
10 May
Varea
0 : 1
Oyonesa
Page 1 of 8

San Marcial

(Away)
13 Sept
Varea
0 : 0
San Marcial
06 Sept
San Marcial
1 : 0
Vianes
10 May
San Marcial
0 : 2
Anguiano
03 May
Haro Deportivo
0 : 0
San Marcial
26 Apr
San Marcial
4 : 3
Agoncillo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Berceo 2 2 0 0 9:1 6
2 CDFC La Calzada 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
3 Haro Deportivo 2 1 1 0 5:4 4
4 Alfaro 2 1 1 0 4:3 4
5 Anguiano 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
6 Comillas CF 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
7 San Marcial 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
8 CD Calahorra 2 1 0 1 3:2 3
9 Pradejon 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
10 Casalarreina CF 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
11 Agoncillo 2 0 2 0 2:2 2
12 Varea 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
13 Cenicero 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
14 Calasancio 2 0 1 1 5:6 1
15 Yague 2 0 0 2 2:4 0
16 Vianes 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
17 Oyonesa 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
18 River Ebro 2 0 0 2 1:9 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 (Play Offs)