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Varea vs Yague

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Ubis E.
55'
Barahona A.
84' Event
Kone Mariko O. N.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Varea
35%
Draws
19%
Yague
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Varea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Varea have won more games recently than Yague.
  • Model gives Varea a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Varea Clean Sheet 68%
Yague Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varea Yague
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 19 6
Draws 6 13
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.42 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.74 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Yague
1:1
Oct 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Yague vs Varea
1:3
Jan 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Yague vs Varea
0:1
Sep 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Yague
1:1
Feb 11, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Yague vs Varea
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varea Compare

Top Goalscorer Ubis E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Yague Compare

Top Goalscorer Kone Mariko O. N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varea 68 / 100
Yague 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varea Yague

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varea found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

Yague let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Varea stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Varea VS Yague
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Varea

(Home)
24 May
Varea
0 : 2
Oyonesa
17 May
Oyonesa
0 : 0
Varea
10 May
Varea
0 : 1
Oyonesa
03 May
Pradejon
0 : 1
Varea
26 Apr
Varea
0 : 0
Anguiano
Page 1 of 7

Yague

(Away)
09 May
Yague
4 : 4
CD Calahorra
30 Apr
Berceo
2 : 0
Yague
26 Apr
Comillas CF
1 : 1
Yague
19 Apr
Yague
0 : 3
UD Logrones B
12 Apr
Vianes
1 : 0
Yague
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones B 34 26 8 0 99:22 86
2 Varea 34 22 7 5 51:25 73
3 Arnedo 34 21 9 4 72:26 72
4 CD Calahorra 34 17 12 5 86:26 63
5 Oyonesa 34 18 7 9 54:41 61
6 Anguiano 34 17 9 8 49:36 60
7 Haro Deportivo 34 14 9 11 54:46 51
8 Agoncillo 34 13 8 13 59:49 47
9 Vianes 34 11 9 14 39:51 42
10 Yague 34 9 13 12 48:52 40
11 San Marcial 34 10 9 15 39:59 39
12 Berceo 34 10 9 15 42:50 39
13 CDFC La Calzada 34 10 8 16 40:55 38
14 Comillas CF 34 11 5 18 32:58 38
15 Pradejon 34 9 8 17 30:49 35
16 Villegas 34 7 7 20 36:66 28
17 Autol 34 4 6 24 20:80 18
18 Pena Balsamaiso 34 0 11 23 27:86 11
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 (Play Offs)