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Varea vs Yague - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026
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Match Events

38' Event
Ubis E.
55'
Barahona A.
84' Event
Kone Mariko O. N.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Varea
35%
Draws
30%
Yague
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Varea have won more games recently than Yague.
  • Model gives Varea a 35% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Varea Clean Sheet 68%
Yague Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varea Yague
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 6
Draws 9 11
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 1.1 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.69 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Yague
1:1
Oct 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Yague vs Varea
1:3
Jan 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Yague vs Varea
0:1
Sep 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Yague
1:1
Feb 11, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Yague vs Varea
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varea Compare

Top Goalscorer Ubis E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Yague Compare

Top Goalscorer Kone Mariko O. N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varea 68 / 100
Yague 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varea Yague

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varea Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Varea remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Varea scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Yague has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Varea VS Yague
0.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
38% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Varea

(Home)
04 Oct
Oyonesa
1 : 1
Varea
27 Sept
Varea
1 : 0
CDFC La Calzada
20 Sept
Pradejon
1 : 1
Varea
13 Sept
Varea
0 : 0
San Marcial
06 Sept
Cenicero
1 : 1
Varea
Page 1 of 6

Yague

(Away)
03 Oct
Yague
2 : 1
Cenicero
27 Sept
Haro Deportivo
3 : 0
Yague
18 Sept
Yague
1 : 0
River Ebro
13 Sept
Alfaro
2 : 1
Yague
05 Sept
Yague
1 : 2
Berceo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones B 34 26 8 0 99:22 86
2 Varea 34 22 7 5 51:25 73
3 Arnedo 34 21 9 4 72:26 72
4 CD Calahorra 34 17 12 5 86:26 63
5 Oyonesa 34 18 7 9 54:41 61
6 Anguiano 34 17 9 8 49:36 60
7 Haro Deportivo 34 14 9 11 54:46 51
8 Agoncillo 34 13 8 13 59:49 47
9 Vianes 34 11 9 14 39:51 42
10 Yague 34 9 13 12 48:52 40
11 San Marcial 34 10 9 15 39:59 39
12 Berceo 34 10 9 15 42:50 39
13 CDFC La Calzada 34 10 8 16 40:55 38
14 Comillas CF 34 11 5 18 32:58 38
15 Pradejon 34 9 8 17 30:49 35
16 Villegas 34 7 7 20 36:66 28
17 Autol 34 4 6 24 20:80 18
18 Pena Balsamaiso 34 0 11 23 27:86 11
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 (Play Offs)