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Varegg vs Stord - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Norway Norway

Division 3 - Group 3
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Varegg host Stord in the Division 3 - Group 3. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Stord have shipped 2.62 goals a game lately, while Varegg have conceded 2.17 and scored 1.5. Head-to-head, Varegg have won 0 to Stord's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Jun 20, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (2.63 xG vs 1.94) point toward Stord. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Varegg
30%
Draws
19%
Stord
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Varegg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Stord haven't matched Varegg's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Varegg's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Division 3 - Group 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Stord have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Varegg Clean Sheet 10%
Stord Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varegg Stord
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 6
Draws 6 11
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 1.5 1.83
Goals Conceded 2.17 2.62
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 Division 3 - Group 3
Stord vs Varegg
1:1
Sep 8, 2018 Division 3 - Group 4
Stord vs Varegg
5:2
May 16, 2018 Division 3 - Group 4
Varegg vs Stord
1:2
Sep 30, 2017 Division 3 - Group 4
Stord vs Varegg
3:1
Jun 16, 2017 Division 3 - Group 4
Varegg vs Stord
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varegg 83 / 100
Stord 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varegg Stord

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varegg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stord's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Varegg went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Varegg found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Varegg VS Stord
2.13 Goals Scored 2.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 3.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Varegg

(Home)
03 Oct
Brann 2
1 : 2
Varegg
26 Sept
Varegg
4 : 2
OS TF
19 Sept
Gneist IL
2 : 2
Varegg
12 Sept
Varegg
2 : 0
Sogndal 2
05 Sept
Austevoll
2 : 2
Varegg
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Stord

(Away)
03 Oct
Stord
1 : 2
V. Haugesund
26 Sept
Fyllingsdalen
1 : 2
Stord
17 Sept
Stord
3 : 4
Djerv 1919
12 Sept
Askoy
3 : 3
Stord
05 Sept
Stord
3 : 5
Fana
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