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Varese FC vs Lavagnese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

71' Event
Barzotti M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 game between Varese FC and Lavagnese finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varese FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Varese FC
30%
Draws
8%
Lavagnese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Varese FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Lavagnese haven't matched Varese FC's recent run of results.
  • 62% — that's where the model lands on Varese FC taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Varese FC Clean Sheet 68%
Lavagnese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varese FC Lavagnese
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 4
Draws 8 10
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 1.34 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.79 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Varese FC
2:3
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Varese FC vs Lavagnese
1:0
Mar 30, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Varese FC vs Lavagnese
1:2
Nov 17, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Varese FC
0:1
Jan 14, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Varese FC
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varese FC 95 / 100
Lavagnese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varese FC Lavagnese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varese FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lavagnese let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Varese FC found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Varese FC has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Varese FC VS Lavagnese
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.2
75% Over 1.5 80%
50% Over 2.5 60%
25% Over 3.5 40%

Recent Form & Match History

Varese FC

(Home)
20 Sept
US Pontedera
0 : 3
Varese FC
16 Sept
Cittadella Vis Modena
0 : 0
Varese FC
12 Sept
Varese FC
0 : 2
Pro Sesto
06 Sept
Tropical Coriano
1 : 1
Varese FC
19 Aug
Varese FC
3 : 2
Pro Palazzolo
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Lavagnese

(Away)
03 May
Lavagnese
2 : 3
Varese FC
26 Apr
Chisola
4 : 2
Lavagnese
19 Apr
Valenzana
2 : 0
Lavagnese
12 Apr
Lavagnese
1 : 2
Vado
02 Apr
Gozzano
0 : 0
Lavagnese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vado 34 24 6 4 69:24 78
2 Ligorna 34 21 9 4 64:26 72
3 AS Biellese 34 16 9 9 48:29 57
4 Varese FC 34 16 8 10 43:43 56
5 Chisola 34 16 7 11 44:36 55
6 Sestri Levante 34 15 9 10 54:34 54
7 Sanremese 34 13 10 11 37:30 49
8 Valenzana 34 12 9 13 33:48 45
9 Celle Varazze 34 12 8 14 41:47 44
10 Saluzzo 34 11 10 13 48:44 43
11 Club Milano 34 12 6 16 43:49 42
12 Imperia Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:44 41
13 Cairese 34 9 13 12 29:34 40
14 Derthona FbC 34 11 7 16 36:46 40
15 Gozzano 34 9 12 13 37:42 39
16 Asti Calcio 34 8 11 15 32:42 35
17 Lavagnese 34 5 12 17 32:52 27
18 NovaRomentin 34 6 3 25 26:82 16
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Out)