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Varese FC vs Lavagnese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A
Our Tip

Match Events

71' Event
Barzotti M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A game between Varese FC and Lavagnese finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varese FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Varese FC
6%
Draws
4%
Lavagnese
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Varese FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Lavagnese haven't matched Varese FC's recent run of results.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Varese FC taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Varese FC Clean Sheet 68%
Lavagnese Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varese FC Lavagnese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 4
Draws 7 10
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 0.88 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Varese FC
2:3
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Varese FC vs Lavagnese
1:0
Mar 30, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Varese FC vs Lavagnese
1:2
Nov 17, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Varese FC
0:1
Jan 14, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Varese FC
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varese FC 95 / 100
Lavagnese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varese FC Lavagnese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varese FC scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Lavagnese conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Varese FC has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Varese FC VS Lavagnese
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Varese FC

(Home)
17 May
Ligorna
5 : 3
Varese FC
09 May
AS Biellese
1 : 2
Varese FC
03 May
Lavagnese
2 : 3
Varese FC
26 Apr
Varese FC
1 : 0
Saluzzo
19 Apr
Varese FC
1 : 0
Derthona FbC
Page 1 of 6

Lavagnese

(Away)
03 May
Lavagnese
2 : 3
Varese FC
26 Apr
Chisola
4 : 2
Lavagnese
19 Apr
Valenzana
2 : 0
Lavagnese
12 Apr
Lavagnese
1 : 2
Vado
02 Apr
Gozzano
0 : 0
Lavagnese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vado34246469:2478
2Ligorna34219464:2672
3AS Biellese34169948:2957
4Varese FC341681043:4356
5Chisola341671144:3655
6Sestri Levante341591054:3454
7Sanremese3413101137:3049
8Valenzana341291333:4845
9Celle Varazze341281441:4744
10Saluzzo3411101348:4443
11Club Milano341261643:4942
12Imperia Calcio3410111336:4441
13Cairese349131229:3440
14Derthona FbC341171636:4640
15Gozzano349121337:4239
16Asti Calcio348111532:4235
17Lavagnese345121732:5227
18NovaRomentin34632526:8216
Promotion - Serie D - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A (Play Out)