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Varese FC vs Ligorna

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Pastore M.
33' Event
Tentoni T.
39' Event
Pastore M.

AI Match Summary

Ligorna in this Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ligorna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Varese FC
35%
Draws
35%
Ligorna
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ligorna lately — more wins on the board than Varese FC.
  • 30% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Varese FC Clean Sheet 68%
Ligorna Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varese FC Ligorna
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 19
Draws 9 6
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.4 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.3 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Ligorna vs Varese FC
5:3
Feb 15, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Varese FC vs Ligorna
1:3
Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Ligorna vs Varese FC
4:0
Jan 15, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Varese FC vs Ligorna
1:0
Sep 18, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Ligorna vs Varese FC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varese FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Tentoni T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Ligorna Compare

Top Goalscorer Pastore M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Vassallo P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varese FC 41 / 100
Ligorna 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varese FC Ligorna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varese FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varese FC scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Ligorna let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Varese FC stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Varese FC VS Ligorna
1.5 Goals Scored 3
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Varese FC

(Home)
27 Sept
Varese FC
1 : 1
Lentigione
20 Sept
US Pontedera
0 : 3
Varese FC
16 Sept
Cittadella Vis Modena
0 : 0
Varese FC
12 Sept
Varese FC
0 : 2
Pro Sesto
06 Sept
Tropical Coriano
1 : 1
Varese FC
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Ligorna

(Away)
27 Sept
Chisola
1 : 2
Ligorna
20 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 2
Ligorna
16 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 3
Derthona FbC
13 Sept
AS Biellese
3 : 1
Ligorna
06 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 2
Sanremese
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vado 34 24 6 4 69:24 78
2 Ligorna 34 21 9 4 64:26 72
3 AS Biellese 34 16 9 9 48:29 57
4 Varese FC 34 16 8 10 43:43 56
5 Chisola 34 16 7 11 44:36 55
6 Sestri Levante 34 15 9 10 54:34 54
7 Sanremese 34 13 10 11 37:30 49
8 Valenzana 34 12 9 13 33:48 45
9 Celle Varazze 34 12 8 14 41:47 44
10 Saluzzo 34 11 10 13 48:44 43
11 Club Milano 34 12 6 16 43:49 42
12 Imperia Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:44 41
13 Cairese 34 9 13 12 29:34 40
14 Derthona FbC 34 11 7 16 36:46 40
15 Gozzano 34 9 12 13 37:42 39
16 Asti Calcio 34 8 11 15 32:42 35
17 Lavagnese 34 5 12 17 32:52 27
18 NovaRomentin 34 6 3 25 26:82 16
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Out)