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Varese FC vs Pinerolo

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Varese FC play Pinerolo in the Serie D - Group A 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Varese FC averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. Pinerolo averaged 0.57 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Varese FC won 1, Pinerolo won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 14, 2024 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.35 for Varese FC and 1.19 for Pinerolo. This points to a Varese FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Varese FC
31%
Draws
22%
Pinerolo
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Varese FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Varese FC picked up more points recently compared to Pinerolo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.35 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Varese FC Clean Sheet 20%
Pinerolo Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varese FC Pinerolo
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 14 5
Draws 8 11
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.31 0.57
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.17

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Varese FC vs Pinerolo
1:1
Dec 3, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Pinerolo vs Varese FC
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varese FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Zazzi F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Pinerolo Compare

Top Goalscorer Costantino D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varese FC 46 / 100
Pinerolo 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varese FC Pinerolo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Varese FC or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +22.1%
3.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Varese FC attacking → ← attacking Pinerolo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varese FC scored in 84% of their last 32 games.

Pinerolo let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Varese FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Pinerolo lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 26
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Alcione Milano382310570:2779
2Chisola38219864:3772
3Varese FC381812849:3366
4Vado381714751:2865
5NovaRomentin381811958:3865
6Bra381811947:3065
7Ligorna381712944:3763
8Asti Calcio3816111142:3359
9Albenga381515851:3358
10Sanremese3813131234:3352
11Fezzanese381491542:5051
12Gozzano3810151335:3845
13Lavagnese3811111646:4744
14Vogherese3810121642:5742
15Derthona FbC389141534:5241
16AC Chieri388151539:5239
17Pinerolo388131725:4437
18Alba381072139:6337
19PDHA38572625:6322
20Borgosesia Calcio38572625:6722