Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group A

Valenzana

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Varese FC play Valenzana in the Serie D - Group A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Varese FC averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Valenzana averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, Varese FC won 1, Valenzana won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 2, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Varese FC and 1.13 for Valenzana. This points to a Varese FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Varese FC

23%

Draws

35%

Valenzana

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Varese FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Varese FC picked up more points recently compared to Valenzana.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 73%

Over 2.5 Goals 44%

Over 3.5 Goals 26%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

Varese FC Clean Sheet 21%

Valenzana Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 66%

Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Varese FC	Valenzana
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	13	11
Draws	7	7
Losses	10	12
Goals Scored	1.33	0.97
Goals Conceded	1.5	1.43
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs Valenzana

Possession: 41% - 57% Cards: 2 - 4

1:2

Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group A

Valenzana vs Varese FC

Possession: 46% - 48% Cards: 3 - 1

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varese FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Palesi L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Valenzana Compare

Top Goalscorer Montini M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Doria A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varese FC 42 / 100

Valenzana 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Varese FC Valenzana

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Varese FC or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23.5%

2.94

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.7%

2.63

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Varese FC attacking → ← attacking Valenzana

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varese FC scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Valenzana let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Varese FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Valenzana lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 40

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vado	34	24	6	4	69:24	78
2	Ligorna	34	21	9	4	64:26	72
3	AS Biellese	34	16	9	9	48:29	57
4	Varese FC	34	16	8	10	43:43	56
5	Chisola	34	16	7	11	44:36	55
6	Sestri Levante	34	15	9	10	54:34	54
7	Sanremese	34	13	10	11	37:30	49
8	Valenzana	34	12	9	13	33:48	45
9	Celle Varazze	34	12	8	14	41:47	44
10	Saluzzo	34	11	10	13	48:44	43
11	Club Milano	34	12	6	16	43:49	42
12	Imperia Calcio	34	10	11	13	36:44	41
13	Cairese	34	9	13	12	29:34	40
14	Derthona FbC	34	11	7	16	36:46	40
15	Gozzano	34	9	12	13	37:42	39
16	Asti Calcio	34	8	11	15	32:42	35
17	Lavagnese	34	5	12	17	32:52	27
18	NovaRomentin	34	6	3	25	26:82	16