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Varesina vs Ciliverghe Mazzano

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2024/2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Varesina play Ciliverghe Mazzano in the Serie D - Group B 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Varesina averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. Ciliverghe Mazzano averaged 1.03 goals scored and 2.03 conceded. In past meetings, Varesina won 3, Ciliverghe Mazzano won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 23, 2025 ended 5:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for Varesina and 1.13 for Ciliverghe Mazzano. This points to a Varesina double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Varesina
21%
Draws
25%
Ciliverghe Mazzano
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Varesina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Varesina picked up more points recently compared to Ciliverghe Mazzano.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%
Varesina Clean Sheet 21%
Ciliverghe Mazzano Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varesina Ciliverghe Mazzano
Matches Played 36 30
Wins 11 5
Draws 13 6
Losses 12 19
Goals Scored 1.36 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.28 2.03

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Ciliverghe Mazzano
5:2
Nov 10, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Ciliverghe Mazzano vs Varesina
0:3
Feb 28, 2016 Serie D - Group B
Ciliverghe Mazzano vs Varesina
2:0
Oct 25, 2015 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Ciliverghe Mazzano
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varesina Compare

Top Goalscorer Bertoli M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Mazia A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Ciliverghe Mazzano Compare

Top Goalscorer Orlandi A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Triglia A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varesina 53 / 100
Ciliverghe Mazzano 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varesina Ciliverghe Mazzano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varesina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Varesina & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.2%
2.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Varesina attacking → ← attacking Ciliverghe Mazzano

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varesina scored in 75% of their last 36 games.

Ciliverghe Mazzano let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Varesina went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Ciliverghe Mazzano lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 21
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ospitaletto382112566:3475
2Pro Palazzolo382010869:3670
3Desenzano Calvina381912751:2969
4USD Casatese381911858:3468
5Folgore Caratese382081066:4268
6Varesina381713861:4464
7Chievo381691349:3757
8Pro Sesto3813131245:4352
9Club Milano381471744:5049
10Sant'Angelo3811151241:4148
11Sondrio3812111539:5147
12Breno3811141342:5347
13Castellanzese3810161243:5346
14Vigasio3811121539:4145
15Sangiuliano City3811121539:4645
16Crema3811111648:5744
17Magenta388121833:5336
18Fanfulla386141828:5732
19Ciliverghe Mazzano387102141:7031
20Arconatese387102133:6431