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Varesina vs Pro Patria - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D game between Varesina and Pro Patria finished 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Varesina
30%
Draws
58%
Pro Patria
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pro Patria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Pro Patria's 1.38 goals per match outpaces what Varesina have produced (1.16).
  • Pro Patria are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Varesina Clean Sheet 10%
Pro Patria Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varesina Pro Patria
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 9 9
Draws 10 6
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.16 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Varesina vs Pro Patria
0:0
Aug 5, 2023 Club Friendly
Varesina vs Pro Patria
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varesina 10 / 100
Pro Patria 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varesina Pro Patria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pro Patria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pro Patria's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Varesina scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Solid form: Varesina remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Varesina VS Pro Patria
1.63 Goals Scored 2
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Varesina

(Home)
04 Oct
Varesina
0 : 0
Pro Patria
27 Sept
USD Casatese
4 : 2
Varesina
20 Sept
Varesina
0 : 1
Pistoiese
16 Sept
Correggese
2 : 1
Varesina
13 Sept
Sant'Angelo
1 : 1
Varesina
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Pro Patria

(Away)
07 Oct
Varese FC
2 : 5
Pro Patria
04 Oct
Varesina
0 : 0
Pro Patria
27 Sept
Pro Patria
0 : 1
Solbiatese
20 Sept
Arconatese
0 : 3
Pro Patria
16 Sept
Pro Patria
2 : 0
Crema
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 6 6 0 0 17:1 18
2 Pro Sesto 6 4 1 1 17:5 13
3 Pro Patria 6 4 1 1 10:4 13
4 Lentigione 6 4 1 1 9:6 13
5 Castellanzese 6 4 0 2 13:5 12
6 Cittadella Vis Modena 6 3 1 2 7:4 10
7 USD Casatese 6 3 1 2 10:9 10
8 Correggese 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
9 Sant'Angelo 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
10 Pavia 6 1 4 1 5:3 7
11 Varese FC 6 1 3 2 7:7 6
12 Varesina 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
13 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 2:6 5
14 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
15 Crema 6 1 1 4 4:14 4
16 Arconatese 6 0 3 3 4:13 3
17 Oltrepo 6 1 0 5 4:14 3
18 US Pontedera 5 0 0 5 3:15 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)