Sport Picks
Varzim vs AD Marco 09
Portugal
Liga 3 Estádio do Varzim SC, Póvoa de Varzim 
Match Events
14'
14'
Sousa V.
Assist: Silva F.
28'
28'
Silva F.
Assist: Couto J.
36'
36'
Sub
Rego R. In: Lucas Henrique
Out: Rego R.
AI Match Summary
The Liga 3 game between Varzim and AD Marco 09 finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varzim.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
15%
58%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AD Marco 09
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
27%
/ Low Confidence
- AD Marco 09 haven't matched Varzim's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Varzim have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Varzim Clean Sheet 68%
AD Marco 09 Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Varzim | AD Marco 09 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 11 |
| Draws | 4 | 9 |
| Losses | 14 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.23 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 16, 2026 Liga 3
Varzim vs AD Marco 09
2:1
Jan 25, 2026 Liga 3
AD Marco 09 vs Varzim
1:3
Nov 1, 2025 Liga 3
Varzim vs AD Marco 09
2:1
Jul 27, 2024 Club Friendly
Varzim vs AD Marco 09
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Varzim Compare
Top Goalscorer Sousa V.
1 Goals Assists Leader Silva F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
AD Marco 09 Compare
Top Goalscorer Pedro P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Varzim 41 / 100
AD Marco 09 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Varzim AD Marco 09
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Varzim Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.50 goals.
Attacking prowess: Varzim scored in 65% of their last 31 outings.
AD Marco 09 let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.
Varzim has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Varzim VS AD Marco 09
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Varzim
(Home) 19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1 Varzim
12 Sept
Varzim
1 : 2 SC Vianense
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1 Paredes
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1 Trofense
22 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 4 Varzim
Page 1 of 7
12 Sept
Varzim
1 : 2 SC Vianense
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1 Paredes
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1 Trofense
16 Aug
Varzim
2 : 1 AD Marco 09
02 Aug
Varzim
1 : 1 Vitoria Guimaraes
Page 1 of 3
AD Marco 09
(Away) 20 Sept
AD Marco 09
1 : 0 Maia Lidador
12 Sept
AD Marco 09
1 : 0 Vitoria Guimaraes B
06 Sept
Sao Joao de Ver
0 : 0 AD Marco 09
30 Aug
Regua
0 : 1 AD Marco 09
23 Aug
AD Marco 09
2 : 0 SC Vianense
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Sao Joao de Ver
0 : 0 AD Marco 09
30 Aug
Regua
0 : 1 AD Marco 09
16 Aug
Varzim
2 : 1 AD Marco 09
01 Aug
Cinfaes
1 : 1 AD Marco 09
15 Jul
Leiria
2 : 0 AD Marco 09
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:4 | 12 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 10 |
| 3 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 4 | AD Fafe | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:4 | 8 |
| 5 | SC Vianense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 8 |
| 6 | Leca | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:8 | 7 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 5 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2:7 | 4 |
| 9 | Sao Joao de Ver | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5:10 | 2 |
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13:2 | 15 |
| 2 | Atletico CP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:7 | 8 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 5 | Louletano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:7 | 7 |
| 6 | Caldas SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 7 |
| 7 | Lusitano GC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 5 |
| 8 | Covilha | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | 5 |
| 9 | Santarem | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3:10 | 4 |
| 10 | Vitoria Sernache | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3:13 | 1 |
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)
