Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Varzim vs Paredes

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Estádio do Varzim SC, Póvoa de Varzim
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Rodrigues D.
Assist: Moreno M. A.
26'
Rodrigues D.
32'
Couto J.

AI Match Summary

Paredes in this Liga 3 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Paredes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Varzim
15%
Draws
57%
Paredes
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Paredes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paredes lately — more wins on the board than Varzim.
  • 28% — that's where the model lands on Varzim taking it.
  • Regular Liga 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Varzim Clean Sheet 68%
Paredes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varzim Paredes
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 16
Draws 4 7
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 1.2 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Liga 3
Varzim vs Paredes
0:1
Dec 13, 2025 Liga 3
Paredes vs Varzim
0:0
Sep 12, 2025 Liga 3
Varzim vs Paredes
2:2
Mar 12, 2023 Liga 3
Paredes vs Varzim
1:0
Dec 2, 2022 Liga 3
Varzim vs Paredes
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varzim Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Paredes Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigues D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varzim 59 / 100
Paredes 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varzim Paredes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varzim Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Varzim scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Paredes's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Varzim has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Varzim VS Paredes
2 Goals Scored 2.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Varzim

(Home)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
12 Sept
Varzim
1 : 2
SC Vianense
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 4
Varzim
Page 1 of 6

Paredes

(Away)
20 Sept
Paredes
5 : 1
Maria de Fonte
13 Sept
Paredes
2 : 1
AD Fafe
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
30 Aug
Ermesinde
1 : 3
Paredes
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paredes 5 4 0 1 8:4 12
2 AD Marco 09 5 3 1 1 6:3 10
3 Varzim 5 3 0 2 8:5 9
4 AD Fafe 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
5 SC Vianense 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
6 Leca 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
7 Vitoria Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 2:7 4
9 Sao Joao de Ver 5 0 3 2 3:6 3
10 Pacos Ferreira 5 0 2 3 5:10 2
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 13:2 15
2 Atletico CP 5 3 1 1 8:3 10
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 7:7 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 9:5 7
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7:7 7
6 Caldas SC 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
7 Lusitano GC 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Covilha 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
9 Santarem 5 1 1 3 3:10 4
10 Vitoria Sernache 5 0 1 4 3:13 1
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)