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Varzim vs Santarem

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio do Varzim SC, Póvoa de Varzim
Varzim Logo

Varzim

1 - 0
FT
Santarem Logo

Santarem

Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Rego R.
44'
Filipe L.
46'
Sub
Vila Cova M. In: da Silva D.
Out: Vila Cova M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Varzim and Santarem finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varzim.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Varzim
15%
Draws
46%
Santarem
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Santarem

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Santarem haven't matched Varzim's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Varzim a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Varzim Clean Sheet 68%
Santarem Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varzim Santarem
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 7
Draws 4 11
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.2 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga 3
Santarem vs Varzim
2:2
Mar 21, 2026 Liga 3
Varzim vs Santarem
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varzim 95 / 100
Santarem 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varzim Santarem

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varzim Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santarem has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Varzim's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Varzim stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Varzim VS Santarem
1.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Varzim

(Home)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
12 Sept
Varzim
1 : 2
SC Vianense
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 4
Varzim
Page 1 of 6

Santarem

(Away)
20 Sept
Santarem
5 : 0
Merelinense
12 Sept
Louletano
1 : 2
Santarem
04 Sept
Santarem
0 : 1
Caldas SC
22 Aug
CF Os Belenenses
5 : 0
Santarem
14 Aug
Santarem
1 : 1
Oliveirense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)