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Vasco da Gama Vidigueira vs Malveira Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Blackwell Z.
46' Event
Eze E.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 game between Vasco da Gama Vidigueira and Malveira finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
20%
Draws
64%
Malveira
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Malveira

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Malveira carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Malveira taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira Clean Sheet 10%
Malveira Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vasco da Gama Vidigueira Malveira
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 3 10
Draws 11 10
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 0.87 1.27
Goals Conceded 2.27 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 0.90 2.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Malveira vs Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
4:1
Nov 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira vs Malveira
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira Compare

Top Goalscorer Eze E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.45

Malveira Compare

Top Goalscorer Blackwell Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.29

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 10 / 100
Malveira 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira Malveira

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Malveira Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Malveira has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Malveira's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira VS Malveira
0.8 Goals Scored 1.25
3.4 Goals Conceded 1
80% Over 1.5 75%
80% Over 2.5 50%
80% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira

(Home)
18 Apr
Juv. Evora
4 : 1
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
12 Apr
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
2 : 5
Louletano
04 Apr
Sintrense
4 : 0
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
22 Mar
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
0 : 0
Portimonense B
15 Mar
Malveira
4 : 1
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
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Malveira

(Away)
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
06 Sept
Malveira
3 : 0
GD Os Nazarenos
29 Aug
Malveira
2 : 3
Mafra
23 Aug
Fatima
5 : 0
Malveira
16 Aug
Malveira
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)