Sport Picks

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Vastogirardi vs Montegiorgio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Hernandez K.
68' Event
Makni N.

AI Match Summary

Vastogirardi in this Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vastogirardi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Vastogirardi
15%
Draws
42%
Montegiorgio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vastogirardi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vastogirardi lately — more wins on the board than Montegiorgio.
  • Vastogirardi are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Vastogirardi Clean Sheet 17%
Montegiorgio Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vastogirardi Montegiorgio
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 9 6
Draws 10 9
Losses 18 15
Goals Scored 0.81 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.79 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Vastogirardi vs Montegiorgio
2:0
Dec 17, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Montegiorgio vs Vastogirardi
0:0
May 1, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Montegiorgio vs Vastogirardi
2:0
Nov 14, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Vastogirardi vs Montegiorgio
2:1
Apr 1, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Vastogirardi vs Montegiorgio
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vastogirardi Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernandez K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Makni N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.4

Montegiorgio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vastogirardi 41 / 100
Montegiorgio 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vastogirardi Montegiorgio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montegiorgio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Montegiorgio's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Vastogirardi's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 37 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Vastogirardi VS -
0.38 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Vastogirardi

(Home)
05 May
Roma City
4 : 2
Vastogirardi
28 Apr
Vastogirardi
1 : 4
Tivoli Calcio
21 Apr
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 2
Vastogirardi
14 Apr
Vastogirardi
0 : 1
Aquila Calcio
07 Apr
Atletico Ascoli
3 : 1
Vastogirardi
Page 1 of 8

Montegiorgio

(Away)
14 May
Notaresco Calcio
2 : 1
Montegiorgio
07 May
Montegiorgio
2 : 1
Vigor Senigallia
30 Apr
Vastogirardi
2 : 0
Montegiorgio
23 Apr
Montegiorgio
0 : 1
Matese
16 Apr
Fano
3 : 1
Montegiorgio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pineto 34 21 9 4 50:21 72
2 Vigor Senigallia 34 20 7 7 52:34 67
3 Trastevere Calcio 34 18 8 8 56:41 62
4 Fano 34 18 6 10 45:34 60
5 Cynthialbalonga 34 13 13 8 32:23 52
6 Matese 34 12 11 11 44:38 47
7 Sambenedettese 34 13 8 13 39:37 46
8 Calcio Chieti 34 12 10 12 29:27 46
9 Porto D'Ascoli 34 10 15 9 28:27 45
10 Vastogirardi 34 10 13 11 30:31 42
11 Nuova Florida 34 11 9 14 33:44 42
12 Avezzano 34 11 7 16 35:41 40
13 Roma City 34 9 10 15 29:42 37
14 Vastese 34 8 12 14 37:43 36
15 Termoli 34 5 19 10 25:34 34
16 Notaresco Calcio 34 6 13 15 23:41 31
17 Montegiorgio 34 7 10 17 21:34 31
18 US Tolentino 34 7 10 17 25:41 31
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Out)