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Vegalta Sendai vs Toyama - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J2/J3 League Yurtec Stadium Sendai, Sendai
Sat, Jun 6, 2026
2 - 1
05:00 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Nakada Y.
Assist: Kamada H.
41'
Iwabuchi H.
41'
Jung Woo-Young

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Vegalta Sendai
30%
Draws
31%
Toyama
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vegalta Sendai

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vegalta Sendai come out ahead of Toyama on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Vegalta Sendai's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Vegalta Sendai have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Toyama, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Vegalta Sendai Clean Sheet 68%
Toyama Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vegalta Sendai Toyama
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 21 18
Draws 2 2
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.86 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 J2/J3 League
Vegalta Sendai vs Toyama
2:1
Jul 5, 2025 J2 League
Vegalta Sendai vs Toyama
0:1
Jun 11, 2025 Emperors Cup
Vegalta Sendai vs Toyama
0:1
Mar 30, 2025 J2 League
Toyama vs Vegalta Sendai
0:1
Aug 14, 2019 Emperors Cup
Vegalta Sendai vs Toyama
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vegalta Sendai Compare

Top Goalscorer Nakada Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Toyama Compare

Top Goalscorer Fukazawa S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vegalta Sendai 50 / 100
Toyama 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vegalta Sendai Toyama

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vegalta Sendai Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vegalta Sendai found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Toyama conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Vegalta Sendai remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Vegalta Sendai VS Toyama
2.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Vegalta Sendai

(Home)
04 Oct
Vegalta Sendai
2 : 1
Iwata
26 Sept
Iwaki
0 : 2
Vegalta Sendai
20 Sept
Tochigi City
1 : 3
Vegalta Sendai
13 Sept
Vegalta Sendai
1 : 1
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
09 Sept
Fukushima United
4 : 3
Vegalta Sendai
Page 1 of 6

Toyama

(Away)
03 Oct
Kofu
1 : 2
Toyama
29 Sept
Toyama
2 : 3
Urawa Reds
26 Sept
Toyama
3 : 3
Yokohama FC
19 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 2
Toyama
12 Sept
Toyama
0 : 0
Tochigi City
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Vegalta Sendai 1
Kofu 0
Toyama 1
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 0
Final
Vegalta Sendai 2
Toyama 1
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 2
Kofu 1