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Velarde vs Cayon CD - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

67' Event
Cobo F.

AI Match Summary

Cayon CD in this Tercera RFEF - Group 3 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cayon CD.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Velarde
20%
Draws
57%
Cayon CD
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cayon CD

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cayon CD lately — more wins on the board than Velarde.
  • Cayon CD are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Cayon CD have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 41.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Velarde Clean Sheet 13%
Cayon CD Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Velarde Cayon CD
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 3 18
Draws 8 5
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 0.83 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.67
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Velarde vs Cayon CD
0:1
May 5, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Cayon CD vs Velarde
6:0
Dec 16, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Velarde vs Cayon CD
0:1
Mar 4, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Velarde vs Cayon CD
0:3
Oct 12, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Cayon CD vs Velarde
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Velarde Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Cayon CD Compare

Top Goalscorer Cobo F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.52
Avg xA / game 0.93

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Velarde 14 / 100
Cayon CD 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Velarde Cayon CD

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cayon CD Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Cayon CD conceded in 62% of 34 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Velarde scored in 52% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Velarde remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Velarde VS Cayon CD
0.5 Goals Scored 2
1.33 Goals Conceded 1.25
33% Over 1.5 88%
33% Over 2.5 63%
33% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Velarde

(Home)
03 Oct
Velarde
0 : 1
Cayon CD
26 Sept
Guarnizo
3 : 1
Velarde
19 Sept
Velarde
1 : 4
Vimenor
13 Sept
CD Barquereno
0 : 1
Velarde
05 Sept
Velarde
0 : 0
Naval Reinosa
Page 1 of 6

Cayon CD

(Away)
03 Oct
Velarde
0 : 1
Cayon CD
27 Sept
Cayon CD
1 : 1
UD Samano
19 Sept
Atletico Mineros
0 : 2
Cayon CD
12 Sept
Guarnizo
0 : 1
Cayon CD
05 Sept
Cayon CD
0 : 1
Vimenor
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Tropezon 5 5 0 0 11:2 15
2 Bezana 5 5 0 0 11:3 15
3 CD Laredo 5 4 0 1 12:2 12
4 Vimenor 5 3 1 1 7:3 10
5 Cayon CD 5 3 1 1 5:2 10
6 Torina 5 2 3 0 8:2 9
7 UD Samano 5 2 2 1 12:6 8
8 CD Revilla 5 2 2 1 10:6 8
9 Selaya 5 2 1 2 5:7 7
10 Atletico Mineros 5 2 0 3 4:11 6
11 Castro 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
12 UM Escobedo 5 1 2 2 3:7 5
13 Guarnizo 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
14 Solares 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
15 Velarde 5 1 1 3 3:8 4
16 Atletico Albericia 5 0 1 4 3:9 1
17 Naval Reinosa 5 0 1 4 4:13 1
18 CD Barquereno 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 (Play Offs)