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Velarde vs UC Cartes

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Diaz B.
53' Event
Gutierrez R.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2023/2024 game between Velarde and UC Cartes finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward UC Cartes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Velarde
30%
Draws
23%
UC Cartes
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Velarde

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Velarde haven't matched UC Cartes's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Velarde Clean Sheet 19%
UC Cartes Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Velarde UC Cartes
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 3 6
Draws 9 10
Losses 17 17
Goals Scored 0.86 0.91
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 0.80 1.26
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Velarde vs UC Cartes
0:2
Sep 30, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UC Cartes vs Velarde
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Velarde Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.4

UC Cartes Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gutierrez R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.7

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Velarde 32 / 100
UC Cartes 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Velarde UC Cartes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: UC Cartes conceded in 73% of 33 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Away concern: UC Cartes has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Velarde scored in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Velarde VS UC Cartes
0.6 Goals Scored 1.13
1.4 Goals Conceded 1
40% Over 1.5 75%
40% Over 2.5 50%
40% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Velarde

(Home)
26 Sept
Guarnizo
3 : 1
Velarde
19 Sept
Velarde
1 : 4
Vimenor
13 Sept
CD Barquereno
0 : 1
Velarde
05 Sept
Velarde
0 : 0
Naval Reinosa
11 May
Velarde
0 : 3
Vimenor
Page 1 of 6

UC Cartes

(Away)
09 May
SD Noja
2 : 2
UC Cartes
03 May
UC Cartes
0 : 0
Castro
26 Apr
Cayon CD
3 : 2
UC Cartes
18 Apr
UC Cartes
0 : 1
CD Montanas del Pas
11 Apr
UM Escobedo
3 : 1
UC Cartes
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UM Escobedo 34 21 5 8 58:30 68
2 CD Laredo 34 18 7 9 49:22 61
3 Torina 34 16 12 6 45:37 60
4 Atletico Albericia 34 17 7 10 54:37 58
5 Vimenor 34 17 6 11 43:32 57
6 CD Tropezon 34 15 11 8 49:38 56
7 Bezana 34 17 5 12 49:42 56
8 Castro 34 16 4 14 41:41 52
9 Guarnizo 34 13 9 12 37:31 48
10 CD Revilla 34 12 8 14 41:52 44
11 Naval Reinosa 34 9 16 9 39:37 43
12 CD Colindres 34 13 4 17 37:42 43
13 CD Siete Villas 34 11 9 14 50:48 42
14 UD Samano 34 11 8 15 40:44 41
15 Atletico Mineros 34 8 9 17 35:63 33
16 Solares 34 9 6 19 33:54 33
17 UC Cartes 34 8 7 19 32:50 31
18 Velarde 34 3 11 20 29:61 20
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2023/2024 (Play Offs)