Sport Picks
Velo Clube vs Sao Luiz
Brazil
Serie D Estadio Benito Agnelo Castellano, Rio Claro 
Match Events
85'
85'
Vidmar
89'
89'
Matheus Firmino
90'
90'
Matheus Firmino
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
20%
33%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Velo Clube
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Attack-wise there's a gap: Sao Luiz at 1.03 per game, Velo Clube at 0.93.
- Model gives Velo Clube a 42% chance of winning this.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor Velo Clube, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Velo Clube Clean Sheet 68%
Sao Luiz Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Velo Clube | Sao Luiz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 9 |
| Draws | 10 | 11 |
| Losses | 11 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.93 | 1.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.27 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.76 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 12, 2026 Serie D
Sao Luiz vs Velo Clube
3:1
Jul 4, 2026 Serie D
Velo Clube vs Sao Luiz
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Velo Clube Compare
Top Goalscorer Matheus Firmino
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Sao Luiz Compare
Top Goalscorer Vidmar
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Velo Clube 51 / 100
Sao Luiz 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Velo Clube Sao Luiz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.
Velo Clube scored in 60% of their last 30 games.
Defensive concern: Sao Luiz conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.
Solid form: Velo Clube remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Velo Clube VS Sao Luiz
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Velo Clube
(Home) 12 Jul
Sao Luiz
3 : 1 Velo Clube
04 Jul
Velo Clube
2 : 1 Sao Luiz
27 Jun
Agua Santa
1 : 2 Velo Clube
20 Jun
Velo Clube
0 : 0 Agua Santa
07 Jun
Velo Clube
3 : 1 Marica
Page 1 of 6
04 Jul
Velo Clube
2 : 1 Sao Luiz
20 Jun
Velo Clube
0 : 0 Agua Santa
07 Jun
Velo Clube
3 : 1 Marica
23 May
Velo Clube
1 : 1 Piracicaba
09 May
Velo Clube
1 : 1 Nova Iguacu
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Sao Luiz
(Away) 26 Jul
CSA
2 : 1 Sao Luiz
19 Jul
Sao Luiz
0 : 0 CSA
12 Jul
Sao Luiz
3 : 1 Velo Clube
04 Jul
Velo Clube
2 : 1 Sao Luiz
27 Jun
Blumenau
1 : 2 Sao Luiz
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
CSA
2 : 1 Sao Luiz
04 Jul
Velo Clube
2 : 1 Sao Luiz
27 Jun
Blumenau
1 : 2 Sao Luiz
31 May
FC Cascavel
0 : 0 Sao Luiz
23 May
Santa Catarina
1 : 0 Sao Luiz
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Independencia Futebol Clube 1
Manauara 3
Brasiliense 0
Goiatuba EC 1
Imperatriz 2
Maracana 1
Central SC 1
Ferroviario 3
America RJ 1
Piracicaba 3
Sao Joseense 1
Cianorte 2
ASA 2
Sergipe 1
Ivinhema 4
Democrata GV 2
Portuguesa RJ 4
Noroeste 2
EC Sao Jose (PA) 3
Santa Catarina 2
Jacuipense 1
Treze PB 3
CRAC 1
Tombense 0
Fluminense-PI 0
America RN 4
Sampaio Correa 2
Trem 3
Sao Raimundo RR 2
Porto Velho 3
Mixto 1
Gama 3
Serra Branca 3
Juazeirense 0
Rio Branco ES 2
Uberlandia 4
Sampaio Correa FE 1
Portuguesa 2
FC Cascavel 3
Marcilio Dias 4
Sao Luiz 3
Blumenau 2
Velo Clube 2
Agua Santa 1
Lagarto 1
CSA 3
Vitoria ES 1
Betim FC 2
Araguaina 0
Nacional-AM (Manaus) 1
Aparecidense 1
Capital 5
Tuna Luso 2
Iguatu 3
Maguary 2
Piaui 1
Monte Roraima 3
Guapore 4
Ceilandia 2
Luverdense 3
Parnahyba 2
Aguia De Maraba 3
AE Altos 1
ABC 2
1/16-finals
Manauara 2
Goiatuba EC 3
Imperatriz 1
Ferroviario 4
Piracicaba 0
Cianorte 4
ASA 6
Ivinhema 1
Portuguesa RJ 0
EC Sao Jose (PA) 1
Treze PB 3
CRAC 2
America RN 6
Trem 2
Porto Velho 2
Gama 3
Serra Branca 2
Uberlandia 3
Portuguesa 3
Marcilio Dias 1
Sao Luiz 4
Velo Clube 3
CSA 4
Betim FC 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus) 2
Capital 1
Iguatu 5
Maguary 3
Guapore 0
Luverdense 1
Aguia De Maraba 2
ABC 4
1/8-finals
Goiatuba EC 5
Ferroviario 1
Cianorte 1
ASA 6
EC Sao Jose (PA) 3
Treze PB 2
America RN 3
Gama 4
Uberlandia 2
Portuguesa 1
Sao Luiz 1
CSA 2
Nacional-AM (Manaus) 3
Iguatu 2
Luverdense 1
ABC 4
Quarter-finals
Goiatuba EC 1
ASA 2
EC Sao Jose (PA) 1
Gama 5
Uberlandia 3
CSA 0
Nacional-AM (Manaus) 1
ABC 3
Semi-finals
ASA 2
Gama 0
Uberlandia 2
ABC 1
Final
ASA 1
Uberlandia 3
