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Velo Clube vs Sao Luiz

Brazil Brazil

Serie D Estadio Benito Agnelo Castellano
Our Tip

Match Events

85' Event
Vidmar
89' Event
Matheus Firmino
90' Event
Matheus Firmino

AI Match Summary

Velo Clube in this Serie D matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Velo Clube.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Velo Clube
39%
Draws
31%
Sao Luiz
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Sao Luiz at 1 per game, Velo Clube at 0.88.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Velo Clube Clean Sheet 68%
Sao Luiz Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Velo Clube Sao Luiz
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 9
Draws 10 10
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 0.88 1
Goals Conceded 1 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Serie D
Sao Luiz vs Velo Clube
3:1
Jul 4, 2026 Serie D
Velo Clube vs Sao Luiz
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Velo Clube Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus Firmino
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Sao Luiz Compare

Top Goalscorer Vidmar
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Velo Clube 41 / 100
Sao Luiz 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Velo Clube Sao Luiz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VEC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Velo Clube found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Sao Luiz conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Velo Clube has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Velo Clube VS Sao Luiz
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Independencia Futebol Clube1
Manauara3
Brasiliense0
Goiatuba EC1
Imperatriz2
Maracana1
Central SC1
Ferroviario3
Fluminense-PI0
America RN4
Sampaio Correa2
Trem3
Sao Raimundo RR2
Porto Velho3
Mixto1
Gama3
Monte Roraima3
Guapore4
Ceilandia2
Luverdense3
Parnahyba2
Aguia De Maraba3
AE Altos1
ABC2
Araguaina0
Nacional-AM (Manaus)1
Aparecidense1
Capital5
Tuna Luso2
Iguatu3
Maguary2
Piaui1
Portuguesa RJ4
Noroeste2
EC Sao Jose (PA)3
Santa Catarina2
Jacuipense1
Treze PB3
CRAC1
Tombense0
Serra Branca3
Juazeirense0
Rio Branco ES2
Uberlandia4
Sampaio Correa FE1
Portuguesa2
FC Cascavel3
Marcilio Dias4
Sao Luiz3
Blumenau2
Velo Clube2
Agua Santa1
Lagarto1
CSA3
Vitoria ES1
Betim FC2
America RJ1
Piracicaba3
Sao Joseense1
Cianorte2
ASA2
Sergipe1
Ivinhema4
Democrata GV2
1/16-finals
Manauara2
Goiatuba EC3
Imperatriz1
Ferroviario4
America RN6
Trem2
Porto Velho2
Gama3
Guapore0
Luverdense1
Aguia De Maraba2
ABC4
Nacional-AM (Manaus)2
Capital1
Iguatu5
Maguary3
Portuguesa RJ0
EC Sao Jose (PA)1
Treze PB3
CRAC2
Serra Branca2
Uberlandia3
Portuguesa3
Marcilio Dias1
Sao Luiz4
Velo Clube3
CSA4
Betim FC1
Piracicaba0
Cianorte4
ASA6
Ivinhema1
1/8-finals
Goiatuba EC-
Ferroviario-
America RN-
Gama-
Luverdense-
ABC-
Nacional-AM (Manaus)-
Iguatu-
EC Sao Jose (PA)-
Treze PB-
Uberlandia-
Portuguesa-
Sao Luiz-
CSA-
Cianorte-
ASA-
Quarter-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-