Sport Picks
Venados FC vs Alacranes de Durango - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero, Mérida 
Match Events
6'
6'
Moreno Villegas J. A.
23'
23'
Gonzalez J.
29'
29'
Naveda S.
AI Match Summary
Venados FC in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Venados FC.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
30%
33%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Venados FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
33%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Alacranes de Durango lately — more wins on the board than Venados FC.
- 33% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Venados FC Clean Sheet 17%
Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Venados FC | Alacranes de Durango |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 31 |
| Wins | 12 | 15 |
| Draws | 7 | 10 |
| Losses | 10 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 2.1 | 1.61 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.76 | 0.81 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 24, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Alacranes de Durango
3:2
Feb 23, 2023 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Alacranes de Durango
1:0
Jul 20, 2022 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Venados FC
1:1
Mar 27, 2011 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Venados FC
1:1
Oct 17, 2010 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Alacranes de Durango
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Venados FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Naveda S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Alacranes de Durango Compare
Top Goalscorer Munoz J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Venados FC 31 / 100
Alacranes de Durango 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Venados FC Alacranes de Durango
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Alacranes de Durango Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Venados FC found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).
Recent resilience: Venados FC stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.
Alacranes de Durango let in goals in 52% of their last 31 matches.
Scoring Trends
Venados FC VS Alacranes de Durango
2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Venados FC
(Home) 24 Oct
Venados FC
3 : 2 Alacranes de Durango
18 Oct
Cancun
1 : 1 Venados FC
10 Oct
Venados FC
1 : 1 Leones Negros
03 Oct
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Venados FC
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 6
24 Oct
Venados FC
3 : 2 Alacranes de Durango
10 Oct
Venados FC
1 : 1 Leones Negros
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
20 Aug
Venados FC
4 : 2 Dorados de Sinaloa
Page 1 of 3
Alacranes de Durango
(Away) 24 Oct
Venados FC
3 : 2 Alacranes de Durango
18 Oct
Alacranes de Durango
5 : 0 Tapatio
11 Oct
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
04 Oct
Alacranes de Durango
4 : 2 Zacatecas Mineros
27 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
Page 1 of 7
24 Oct
Venados FC
3 : 2 Alacranes de Durango
11 Oct
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
27 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
29 Aug
Correcaminos
0 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico La Paz | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 36:18 | 30 |
| 2 | Leones Negros | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 31:19 | 27 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 | Piratas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 27:15 | 25 |
| 5 | Cancun | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28:18 | 25 |
| 6 | Venados FC | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 31:25 | 25 |
| 7 | Alacranes de Durango | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21:15 | 24 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 29:27 | 22 |
| 9 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 15:25 | 22 |
| 10 | Zacatecas Mineros | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 26:26 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatio | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 25:28 | 18 |
| 12 | Correcaminos | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21:24 | 17 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 23:32 | 16 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15:25 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17:24 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 10:41 | 7 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
