Sport Picks
Venados FC vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero, Mérida 
Match Events
38'
38'
Kilani P.
38'
38'
Martinez E.
42'
42'
Lora S.
Assist: Dominguez A.
AI Match Summary
Venados FC in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 5-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Venados FC.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
15%
28%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Venados FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Tepatitlan de Morelos haven't matched Venados FC's recent run of results.
- Venados FC are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Venados FC Clean Sheet 17%
Tepatitlan de Morelos Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Venados FC | Tepatitlan de Morelos |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 32 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 6 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.93 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.76 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 3.00 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
5:0
Mar 21, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Venados FC
2:0
Oct 11, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
1:0
Jan 11, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Venados FC
2:2
Jul 27, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Venados FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Lora S.
3 Goals Assists Leader Tejeda D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Venados FC 84 / 100
Tepatitlan de Morelos 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Venados FC Tepatitlan de Morelos
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Venados FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Venados FC's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Defensive concern: Tepatitlan de Morelos conceded in 72% of 32 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Away concern: Tepatitlan de Morelos has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Venados FC VS Tepatitlan de Morelos
2.63 Goals Scored 0.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 3.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Venados FC
(Home) 26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
19 Sept
Piratas
2 : 1 Venados FC
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
06 Sept
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Venados FC
29 Aug
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Venados FC
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
20 Aug
Venados FC
4 : 2 Dorados de Sinaloa
08 Aug
Venados FC
3 : 2 Tapatio
25 Jul
Venados FC
3 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 3
Tepatitlan de Morelos
(Away) 19 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
04 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 4 Dorados de Sinaloa
29 Aug
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
6 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 7
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
29 Aug
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
6 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
14 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
01 Aug
Correcaminos
3 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
31 May
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico Morelia | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | 21 |
| 2 | Atletico La Paz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23:11 | 20 |
| 3 | Leones Negros | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21:13 | 20 |
| 4 | Zacatecas Mineros | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21:15 | 17 |
| 5 | Venados FC | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 24:20 | 16 |
| 6 | Piratas | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 7 | Correcaminos | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 19:18 | 15 |
| 8 | Cancun | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18:15 | 14 |
| 9 | Tapatio | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:14 | 14 |
| 10 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17:13 | 13 |
| 11 | Alacranes de Durango | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6:9 | 11 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18:22 | 11 |
| 13 | Jaiba Brava | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11:16 | 11 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 8:18 | 10 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5:28 | 3 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
