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VfB Stuttgart vs FC Porto

Europe Europe

Europa League 2025/2026 MHPArena
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Moffi T.
Assist: Sainz B.
27' Event
Mora R.
Assist: Zaidu
40' Event
Undav D.
Assist: El Khannouss B.

AI Match Summary

The Europa League 2025/2026 game between VfB Stuttgart and FC Porto finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FC Porto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
VfB Stuttgart
39%
Draws
30%
FC Porto
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and FC Porto come out ahead of VfB Stuttgart on wins alone.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
VfB Stuttgart Clean Sheet 15%
FC Porto Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric VfB Stuttgart FC Porto
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 15 22
Draws 6 6
Losses 8 4
Goals Scored 2.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.75 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Europa League
FC Porto vs VfB Stuttgart
2:0
Mar 12, 2026 Europa League
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Porto
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

VfB Stuttgart Compare

Top Goalscorer Undav D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

FC Porto Compare

Top Goalscorer Moffi T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mora R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

VfB Stuttgart 31 / 100
FC Porto 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
VfB Stuttgart FC Porto

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FCP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

VfB Stuttgart scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Solid form: VfB Stuttgart remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

FC Porto's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

VfB Stuttgart VS FC Porto
2.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Ludogorets2
Ferencvaros3
Braga-
TBD-
Panathinaikos4
Plzen3
Betis-
TBD-
Din. Zagreb4
Genk6
Freiburg-
TBD-
PAOK1
Celta Vigo3
Lyon-
TBD-
Celtic2
VfB Stuttgart4
FC Porto-
TBD-
Fenerbahce2
Nottingham4
Midtjylland-
TBD-
Brann0
Bologna2
AS Roma-
TBD-
Lille2
Crvena zvezda1
Aston Villa-
TBD-
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros2
Braga4
Panathinaikos1
Betis4
Genk2
Freiburg5
Celta Vigo3
Lyon1
VfB Stuttgart1
FC Porto4
Nottingham3
Midtjylland2
Bologna5
AS Roma4
Lille0
Aston Villa3
Quarter-finals
Braga5
Betis3
Freiburg6
Celta Vigo1
FC Porto1
Nottingham2
Bologna1
Aston Villa7
Semi-finals
Braga3
Freiburg4
Nottingham1
Aston Villa4
Final
Freiburg0
Aston Villa3